P: ISSN No. 2394-0344 RNI No.  UPBIL/2016/67980 VOL.- IX , ISSUE- X January  - 2025
E: ISSN No. 2455-0817 Remarking An Analisation

Tourism in Uttar Pradesh: Navigating Growth, Fiscal Challenges and Post-Pandemic Recovery

Paper Id :  19748   Submission Date :  2025-01-05   Acceptance Date :  2025-01-22   Publication Date :  2025-01-25
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DOI:10.5281/zenodo.14875363
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Garima Singh
Research Scholar
Department Of Commerce
University Of Lucknow
Lucknow,Uttar Pradesh, India
Arvind Kumar
Professor
Department Of Commerce
University Of Lucknow
Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India
Abstract

Uttar Pradesh's tourism sector significantly contributes to the state’s economy and cultural identity, yet research often neglects financial dimensions and the impact of events like COVID-19. This study addresses these gaps by analyzing tourism trends, financial performance, and the state's share in national tourism (2016–2023) using credible secondary sources. It evaluates revenue and capital expenditure, receipts, and budget deficits across nine key regions. Findings reveal Uttar Pradesh's dominance in domestic tourism, strong post-pandemic recovery, but fiscal inefficiencies and underinvestment hinder progress. Strategic recommendations include enhancing fiscal transparency, prioritizing data-driven investments, and fostering regional tourism balance to establish the state as a global tourism hub.

Keywords Uttar Pradesh tourism, Tourist footfall, financial performance, COVID-19, domestic and international tourism.
Introduction

Tourism is a pivotal sector contributing to global economic growth, cultural exchange, and social development. In India, the tourism industry has historically played a significant role, accounting for a substantial share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment (World Travel & Tourism Council [WTTC], 2018). Uttar Pradesh, as one of India’s most culturally and historically rich states, holds a unique position in the national tourism landscape. With its diverse offerings of religious, historical, and adventure tourism, the state attracts millions of domestic and international visitors annually (Ministry of tourism, 2023). However, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the tourism sector globally, posing unprecedented challenges to travel confidence, economic stability, and operational sustainability. Uttar Pradesh boasts an unparalleled cultural heritage and spiritual significance, making it one of the most sought-after tourist destinations in India. The state is home to Ayodhya, revered as the birthplace of Lord Ram, which has become a focal point for religious tourism with the construction of the grand Ram Mandir (Gupta & Ahmad, 2024). Mathura, the birthplace of Lord Krishna, continues to attract devotees and tourists alike, drawn by its temples and vibrant cultural heritage (Parmar & Shah, 2021). Varanasi, known for its spiritual ghats along the Ganges River, is a global icon of religious tourism and spirituality (Jacob & Bhalla, 2024). Additionally, Uttar Pradesh is home to UNESCO-recognized heritage sites, including the Taj Mahal in Agra and the Agra Fort, which symbolize the state’s architectural grandeur and historical significance (UNSECO, 2023).

The pandemic's impact on Uttar Pradesh's tourism sector has been multifaceted. Pre-pandemic, the state experienced a steady rise in tourist arrivals, peaking in 2019 due to significant cultural events such as the Maha Kumbh Mela in Prayagraj, which attracted millions (Agarwal & Pandey, 2021). However, in 2020, tourist numbers plummeted as travel restrictions and health concerns brought the industry to a standstill. Recovery began in 2021, driven by domestic tourism and government initiatives such as the PRASAD Scheme (Pilgrimage Rejuvenation and Spiritual Augmentation Drive) and the Swadesh Darshan Scheme, which aim to revitalize religious and spiritual tourism (Ministry of Tourism, 2023). These programs focus on the development of key pilgrimage destinations and thematic tourism circuits, enhancing the state’s tourism infrastructure. Projects like the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor and Ayodhya’s infrastructure development have further cemented Uttar Pradesh’s reputation as a premier tourism destination (Gupta & Ahmad, 2024). The PRASAD Scheme, focusing on rejuvenating pilgrimage sites, and the Swadesh Darshan Scheme, emphasizing the integrated development of tourism circuits, have driven the resurgence of Uttar Pradesh’s tourism sector. These initiatives have catalysed growth in religious tourism hubs such as Ayodhya, Mathura, Varanasi, and Prayagraj, aligning with the state's vision to position itself as a global tourism hub.

Uttar Pradesh Tourism Policy 2022

The Uttar Pradesh Tourism Policy 2022 is built on four key pillars: Infrastructure Development, Economic Growth and Investment, Tourism Promotion, and Employment and Community Development. Each pillar outlines specific initiatives, such as improving tourist infrastructure, offering financial incentives, promoting niche tourism, and empowering local communities through skill development and job creation.

The following flowchart provides a clear visual representation of these interconnected pillars, demonstrating how they collectively support the goal of transforming Uttar Pradesh into a global tourism hub. By integrating these elements, the policy ensures a comprehensive and sustainable approach to enhancing the state’s tourism sector.

Chart 1: Four Pillars Of Uttar Pradesh Tourism Policy 2022

Source: Author’s Compilation

Infrastructure Development

Uttar Pradesh aims to establish world-class infrastructure to enhance the tourist experience and cater to growing demand sustainably.

  1. Tourist Infrastructure: Key initiatives include upgrading roads, ensuring last-mile connectivity, and providing modern public facilities at major tourist destinations. Transportation networks like air, rail, and road are being improved for better domestic and international accessibility. Amenities such as clean restrooms, proper signage, and tourist information centres are being prioritized.
  2. Mega Tourism Circuits: The state is developing 12 thematic circuits, such as the Ramayana Circuit, Buddhist Circuit, and Wildlife Circuit, to interconnect attractions under unified themes. These circuits encourage tourists to explore multiple destinations, boosting the duration of their stay and the overall economic impact.
  3. Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs): Uttar Pradesh is collaborating with private players to create high-quality infrastructure like luxury accommodations, convention centres, and eco-friendly resorts. Innovative projects like water-based tourism facilities and adventure parks are also being encouraged.
  4. Sustainability: Infrastructure development focuses on eco-friendly practices such as energy-efficient designs, waste management systems, and heritage conservation to ensure long-term sustainability.

Economic Growth and Investment:

This pillar focuses on creating a favourable ecosystem for tourism investments, driving economic growth, and increasing Uttar Pradesh’s attractiveness to investors.

  1. Incentives and Financial Support: The government offer capital subsidies of up to 30% for projects exceeding 500 crore, capped at 40 crore. Special incentives are available for women entrepreneurs and marginalized groups, ensuring inclusivity. Digital portals simplify processes for subsidies, ensuring transparency.
  2. Investment Targets: Aiming for 20,000 crore in tourism-related investments, the state is also encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI) by showcasing its rich cultural and heritage appeal on global platforms.
  3. Economic Contribution: Tourism’s share in Uttar Pradesh’s Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) is targeted to reach 15% by 2027, with a 10% annual growth rate in the tourism sector to drive economic progress.

Tourism Promotion and Diversification:

Uttar Pradesh is leveraging innovative marketing strategies to diversify tourism offerings and attract a wide range of visitors.

  1. Thematic Tourism: The state is promoting unique segments like eco-tourism (wildlife trails, forest resorts), wellness tourism (yoga retreats, Ayurveda), rural tourism (crafts, cultural festivals), and adventure tourism (rafting, paragliding, trekking). Food festivals and gastronomy tours are being used to highlight Uttar Pradesh’s culinary heritage.
  2. Focus Tourist Destinations: Specific destinations are being developed holistically, with attention to high-quality amenities, safety, and accessibility. Enhancing lesser-known tourist spots is also helping distribute visitors across the state.
  3. Digital Transformation: Technology plays a crucial role, with virtual tours, e-ticketing systems, and centralized platforms integrating tourist information, itineraries, and bookings. Real-time data analytics will enhance the tourist experience.
  4. Marketing and Branding: Aggressive marketing campaigns, global tourism expos, and partnerships with tour operators aim to position Uttar Pradesh as a leading tourism destination.

Employment and Community Development:

This pillar focuses on inclusive growth, ensuring that local communities directly benefit from tourism.

  1. Skill Development: Training programs in hospitality, language, and guiding are being organized, in collaboration with educational institutions, to build a skilled workforce.
  2. Rural Tourism: Homestays are being promoted to provide authentic experiences while offering income opportunities to rural families. Local crafts, arts, and traditions are preserved and showcased to create unique selling points for rural destinations.
  3. Job Creation Targets: The goal is to generate 1 million jobs through direct and indirect tourism activities, with financial and mentorship support for local entrepreneurs to start small tourism-related businesses.

This study explores the evolution of Uttar Pradesh’s tourism sector from 2016 to 2023, focusing on the disruptions caused by the pandemic and the subsequent recovery strategies. It aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of annual tourist arrival trends, financial performance, and the state's contribution to national tourism. Moreover, the research highlights challenges such as fiscal inefficiencies, regional disparities, and slow international recovery, emphasizing the need for targeted policies and sustainable development.

Objective of study

The study focuses on the following objectives:

  1. To analyse annual tourist arrival trends in Uttar Pradesh from 2016 to 2023.
  2. To assess the financial performance of the tourism sector by examining income and expenditure patterns.
  3. To evaluate the impact of significant events (e.g., COVID-19) on Uttar Pradesh’s tourist arrival patterns and recovery rates.
  4. To identify Uttar Pradesh's contribution to national tourism based on its share of domestic and foreign tourists.
Review of Literature

The study explores how digitalization is transforming Uttar Pradesh's tourism sector, emphasizing its potential to attract domestic and international tourists by enhancing experiences and promoting sustainable development. Key initiatives include creating a tourism analytics division, dashboards, mobile apps, digitizing lesser-known destinations, and partnerships with OTAs to improve awareness, decision-making, and tourist engagement (Gupta & Ahmad, 2024).

The study examines the inclusiveness of Uttar Pradesh's tourism industry, focusing on the Uttar Pradesh Tourism Policy 2022. It highlights the limited existing literature on tourism inclusiveness in the state and identifies key policy components aimed at boosting religious and spiritual tourism. The chapter recommends further research, including primary surveys, to explore potential areas for attracting more tourists. It underscores the importance of addressing inclusivity to foster growth in Uttar Pradesh’s tourism sector, which has been relatively under-researched (Jacob & Bhalla, 2024).

The study highlights the immense growth potential of Indian tourism despite the severe crisis caused by COVID-19. Cancellations surged to 80% by March 2020, resulting in losses worth tens of thousands of crores. The industry adapted by making fundamental changes in travel and hospitality services. The paper emphasizes the need for renewed efforts to revive the tourism sector in a post-COVID world. Based on secondary data, particularly government reports, it calls for a focused push to bring the industry back on track, recognizing its significant economic and social contributions (Alluri, S., Venkateswarlu, P. 2023).

This study examines the multifaceted impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry, highlighting the shift from inbound to domestic tourism as a recovery strategy. Focusing on Uttar Pradesh, it analyses government initiatives like One District One Product (ODOP), religious circuits (e.g., Ramayana and Buddhist circuits), Ram Mandir construction, and the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor renovation, aimed at revitalizing tourism infrastructure and promoting domestic travel. Using secondary data from news, articles, and reports, the study identifies challenges and proposes strategies to enhance domestic tourism across various segments, including religious, adventure, and heritage tourism. It concludes that strategic policy implementation and the expected surge in "revenge travel" post-vaccine development can accelerate the recovery and growth of the tourism sector (Agarwal M. K., & Pandey, Vinod, 2021).

The discussion identifies challenges like slow vaccination adoption in certain regions and the lack of comprehensive economic impact assessments. It calls for longitudinal studies to evaluate government policies, assess vaccination and preventive measures in tourist destinations, and design rescue packages for service providers. The study emphasizes the importance of systematic research to develop best practices for resilience, tourist confidence, and structural support, ensuring a robust recovery of the tourism sector (Dash, S. B., & Sharma, P., 2021).

The study highlights the rapid growth of the travel and tourism industry, contributing 9.2% to India's GDP and creating 42.67 million jobs in 2018, with projections of 52.99 million jobs in 2019. It analyses foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) and foreign exchange earnings (FEE) from 2012-13 to 2016-17, noting significant growth in FTAs (CAGR 8.02%) and FEE (CAGR 6.61%). However, the share of tourism in GDP and employment showed stagnant or declining trends, with a negative GDP CAGR of 8.91% and employment CAGR of 0.05%. The study underscores the government's role in infrastructure development, curbing corruption, and fostering political stability to attract tourists. It concludes that while tourism has immense growth potential and significant economic and social impacts, sustained government initiatives are vital for long-term industry success (Parmar & Shah, 2021).

The study highlights the severe and prolonged impact of COVID-19 on the tourism sector, emphasizing the economic damage globally and in individual countries. Despite mitigation efforts, the pandemic disrupted travel confidence, which is critical for tourism recovery. Restoring trust through safety measures, such as disinfecting destinations and ensuring secure environments, is crucial. The industry's recovery depends on controlling virus transmission and regaining traveller confidence, as tourism heavily relies on perceived safety and trust (Jagdale & Ganatra, 2021).

The study emphasizes the need for policymakers and practitioners to develop robust crisis-readiness mechanisms for tourism to address both current and future pandemic crises. It highlights gaps in understanding COVID-19's full economic impact, advocating for empirical research and historical comparisons to inform effective strategies. A four-part economic strategy is proposed: accepting losses, protecting health, supporting income security, and maximizing productive capacity post-crisis. The study underscores the long-lasting and severe negative impacts of pandemic crises on tourism, urging global cooperation for recovery rather than competition. Using data from 185 countries and advanced modelling techniques, the research offers insights into pandemic economics and calls for further studies with larger, more detailed datasets to enhance preparedness and resilience in the tourism sector (Škare et al., 2021).

The study analyses the severe impact of COVID-19 on India's tourism industry, which contributed 9.2% to GDP and supported over 42 million jobs in 2018. The pandemic has resulted in significant losses, with an estimated 38 million jobs at risk. Recovery efforts emphasize rebuilding trust among travellers and adapting to new norms, including social distancing, mask-wearing, and changes in social behaviour. The study highlights the need for the tourism sector to restructure its approach to address these challenges and restore confidence in travel post-pandemic (Ijar & Dogra, 2020).

The study examines the diverse socio-cultural, economic, and psychological impacts of COVID-19 on tourism stakeholders, emphasizing disparities across sectors, employees, and market segments. It advocates for tourism research to shift beyond conventional approaches, addressing issues like gig economy vulnerabilities, employment challenges, and educational disruptions. Key focus areas include tourism employment pressures, evolving leadership and HR practices, and reimagining tourism education for resilience. The rise of social entrepreneurship and technological innovations are highlighted as opportunities for recovery. The study underscores the need for nuanced, inclusive research to address inequalities, enhance stakeholder well-being, and adapt to the transformed tourism landscape (Sigala, 2020).

The study emphasizes the need for planned development of cultural tourism to prevent cultural distortion and socio-cultural damage. Key initiatives involve rationalizing taxes, encouraging private sector participation, and promoting inter-state coordination for sustainable growth. These strategies aim to improve living standards and create a model for tourism-driven rural prosperity (Kumar & Rizvi, 2018).

The study evaluates tourism's role as a key service industry driving economic and social development in India. It highlights tourism's potential for employment generation, foreign exchange earnings, and infrastructure development benefiting both visitors and host communities. The paper examines tourism's positive and negative impacts, focusing on its contributions to transportation, healthcare, sports, and hospitality. It provides an in-depth analysis of tourism's influence on related industries and overall economic growth while acknowledging its challenges (Khatik & Nag, 2012).

Research Gap

Existing research on Uttar Pradesh's tourism sector primarily focuses on descriptive analysis of tourist arrival trends, with limited attention given to the financial dimensions of the sector, such as income and expenditure patterns, which are critical for assessing economic contributions. Additionally, there is a notable absence of comprehensive studies evaluating the impact of significant events, like the COVID-19 pandemic, on tourist arrival patterns and recovery trajectories. Furthermore, the state’s role in national tourism, particularly its share of domestic and foreign tourists, remains under-explored. This study seeks to bridge these gaps by providing a holistic analysis of tourist trends, financial performance, the influence of major events, and Uttar Pradesh’s contribution to the national tourism framework.

Methodology

A structured and methodical research approach has been adopted to conduct a comprehensive analysis of tourist trends, to analyse the financial performance of Uttar Pradesh’s tourism sector, and measure its contribution to national tourism.

Research Design

The study employs a descriptive and analytical research design, utilizing secondary data to examine the evolution of tourism trends, financial metrics, and the impact of significant events such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sources of Information

Data for this research is derived exclusively from credible secondary sources, including:

  1. Annual Reports: Published by the Uttar Pradesh Tourism Department and Ministry of Tourism.
  2. Tourism Statistics: India Tourism Statistics Report.
  3. Financial Documents: Annual financial statement of Uttar Pradesh.
  4. Policy Documents: Uttar Pradesh Tourism Policy 2022 and related initiatives.
  5. Research Articles and Industry Reports: Peer-reviewed journals and reports from established industry bodies.
  6. Media Coverage: Reputed newspapers and press releases for contextual insights.

Variables for Financial Analysis

To evaluate the financial performance of Uttar Pradesh's tourism sector, the following key variables were analysed:

  1. Revenue Expenditure: Operational spending directly related to tourism activities and administrative costs.
  2. Capital Expenditure: Investments in infrastructure development, such as tourism circuits, transport networks, and public facilities.
  3. Total Expenditure: The sum of revenue and capital expenditure, reflecting the state's overall investment in the tourism sector.
  4. Revenue Receipts: Income generated from tourism-related activities, such as entry fees, permits, and tourism services.
  5. Budget Deficit: The gap between total expenditures and revenue receipts, indicating fiscal stress or surplus in the tourism sector.

These variables have been analysed to provide insights into economic trends and resource allocation efficiency within the tourism sector.

Sampling

Sample Size

The sample size of this study encompasses nine major regions of Uttar Pradesh, chosen to represent the state's diverse tourism landscape and evaluate regional variations in tourist arrivals. These regions are Agra, Prayagraj, Varanasi, Ayodhya, Jhansi, Lucknow, Meerut, Bareilly, and Gorakhpur.

Analysis

Annual Tourist Arrival Trends (2016-2023)

The data presented in the following Table 1 provide insights into the trends of domestic (Indian) and international (foreign) tourist arrivals in Uttar Pradesh over eight years (2016–2023), highlighting fluctuations in total tourist numbers and year-on-year percentage changes.

A through scan of the table revealed that from 2016 to 2019, Uttar Pradesh's tourism sector experienced consistent growth, reaching its peak in 2019, when the state saw a total of 540.6 million tourists, reflecting an 87.1% increase. This surge can largely be attributed to the Maha Kumbh gathering in Allahabad. Domestic tourism led the growth, increasing by 87.96%, while foreign tourism exhibited steady growth, with a 25.50% increase in 2019.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused drastic declines across all categories: domestic tourists fell by 84% to 8.61 crore, foreign tourists declined by 81%, and total tourists by 84%, reflecting the global halt in travel.

The recovery phase (2021–2023) experienced a strong resurgence in domestic tourism:

  1. 2021: Domestic tourists grew by 27%, but foreign arrivals declined onwards by 95%.
  2. 2022: Domestic tourism surged by 190%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, while foreign tourism grew by 1351%, though numbers remained low.
  3. 2023: Domestic tourists reached 47.85 crore, close to 2019 levels, and foreign tourists increased by 147%, with total tourists at 48.01 crore, reflecting therein a robust recovery.

Domestic tourism continues to dominate Uttar Pradesh's tourism landscape, contributing over 99% of total tourists, while foreign tourism, although recovering, remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels.

Annual Tourism Trends in Uttar Pradesh in Major Regions of Uttar Pradesh (2016–2023)

Tourism serves as a vital pillar of Uttar Pradesh's economy, reflecting the state's rich cultural and historical legacy. The following table 2 presents a year-wise analysis of tourist footfall across major regions of the state from 2016 to 2023. It highlights key trends, regional variations, and the influence of major events such as the Kumbh Mela. The table also sheds light on the significant disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery driven by cultural and religious tourism in prominent destinations like Agra, Prayagraj, and Varanasi.

The above table provides an analysis of tourist footfall across various regions of Uttar Pradesh from 2016 to 2023, revealing significant trends and fluctuations in tourism over the years. The data indicates steady growth in total tourist arrivals until 2019, with a peak in 2019 at over 541 million visitors, largely driven by notable contributions from Prayagraj, Agra, and Varanasi. Prayagraj shows an exceptional surge in 2019, attributed to the Kumbh Mela event.

However, the year 2020 experienced a sharp decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with total tourist arrivals plummeting to 87 million, showcasing the adverse effects of global travel restrictions. Recovery began in 2021, and by 2022, tourism rebounded substantially, reaching 250 million visitors. The year 2023 witnessed further growth, with total arrivals surging to approximately 467 million, indicating a strong recovery trajectory.

Regionally, Agra consistently recorded the highest tourist numbers, culminating in 105 million in 2023, reflecting its enduring appeal as a heritage site. Varanasi and Prayagraj also demonstrated robust growth, particularly in 2023, with their cultural and religious significance playing a pivotal role. Ayodhya exhibited remarkable growth post-2021, reflecting the impact of recent developments and increased tourism promotion.

Financial Performance of Uttar Pradesh’s Tourism Sector

The tourism sector in Uttar Pradesh has undergone significant financial transformations over the years, reflecting its growing importance in the state’s economy. Tourism Trends in Uttar Pradesh: Visitors, Revenue, Expenditures, and Budget Deficits (2017–2023) offers a comprehensive analysis of key financial indicators, shedding light on both opportunities and challenges.

The following Table 3 provides a year-wise breakdown of data on total tourist arrivals, revenue receipts, expenditures (both revenue and capital), and the corresponding budget deficits. This dataset highlights fluctuations in financial performance, the alignment (or disparity) between expected and actual figures, and the fiscal pressures faced by the sector. By examining this data, insights can be drawn into the sector's economic contributions, resource utilization, and the steps needed to enhance fiscal sustainability and growth.

The table 3 provides an in-depth analysis of the expected and actual financial performance of receipts, expenditures, and budget deficits in crore rupees for the years 2016-17 to 2022-23. The data reveals critical fiscal trends and discrepancies that underline the financial management dynamics of the period under review.
Receipts demonstrate significant shortfalls in the early years, such as 2016-17, where actual receipts amounted to 1.18 crore against the expected 5 crore. Similarly, in 2018-19, actual receipts reached only 1.47 crore compared to the anticipated 5.59 crore. However, a positive trend emerges in recent years, particularly in 2021-22 and 2022-23, where actual receipts of 8.87 crore and 8.78 crore exceed expectations, reflecting improved revenue collection and fiscal discipline.
Revenue expenditure, which reflects operational spending, consistently falls short of expected values. For instance, in 2020-21, the expected revenue expenditure was 116.50 crore, but the actual expenditure was only 54.43 crore. This underutilization of funds indicates either improved efficiency in resource management or challenges in executing planned activities.

Capital expenditure, which is pivotal for infrastructure and long-term growth, shows a stark underperformance across all years. For instance, in 2017-18, the expected capital expenditure was 2,430.99 crore, while the actual spending was only 354 crore. Such discrepancies suggest delays, inefficiencies, or cancellations in planned developmental projects, undermining potential economic growth.

Total expenditure, encompassing both revenue and capital spending, displays a mixed pattern. While it often aligns with or exceeds expectations in later years, such as in 2022-23, where actual expenditure reached 2,646.39 crore against the expected 1,793.18 crore, earlier years show significant gaps, suggesting fluctuating fiscal priorities and execution challenges.

Budget deficits consistently surpass projections, underscoring fiscal stress. In 2017-18, the actual deficit was 3,133.70 crore, significantly higher than the expected 2,779.70 crore. A similar trend is evident in 2022-23, where the deficit surged to 2,639.65 crore compared to the expected 1,786.44 crore. These persistent deficits highlight the state’s challenges in aligning expenditure with revenue generation and point toward structural fiscal imbalances.

In summary, the data underscores significant fiscal inefficiencies, particularly in capital expenditure execution and deficit management, despite improved revenue performance in recent years.

The same trends can be readily understood from the following (figure 1), which visually represents the relationship between total tourist arrivals, revenue receipts, expenditures, and budget deficits over the years.

Figure 1: Comprehensive Tourism Statistics of Uttar Pradesh: Visitor Trends and Fiscal Performance (2017–2023)

Source: Graphical representation of Table 03

The figure 1 presents all five financial variables (Receipts, Revenue Expenditure, Capital Expenditure, Total Expenditure, and Budget Deficit) in a single plot with distinct colours:

  1. Blue: Receipts (Expected and Actual)
  2. Green: Revenue Expenditure (Expected and Actual)
  3. Orange: Capital Expenditure (Expected and Actual)
  4. Red: Total Expenditure (Expected and Actual)
  5. Purple: Budget Deficit (Expected and Actual)

This unified visualization comprehensively compares all variables and their trends over the years. The chart highlights the sharp fluctuations in tourist numbers, particularly during the pandemic years, alongside the consistent rise in expenditures and widening deficits. This visual representation complements the tabular data, providing a clearer perspective on the challenges and recovery patterns in Uttar Pradesh's tourism sector.

6.5 Uttar Pradesh’s Contribution to National Tourism

Uttar Pradesh holds a pivotal position in India’s tourism landscape, owing to its unparalleled cultural heritage, historical landmarks, and religious significance. As one of the country’s most visited states, it consistently ranks among the top contributors to both domestic and foreign tourism. This prominence is driven by world-renowned destinations such as the Taj Mahal in Agra, the spiritual ghats of Varanasi, and the culturally rich city of Ayodhya. The state’s ability to attract a diverse range of tourists is reflected in its strong performance in national rankings, particularly in domestic tourism, where it achieved the top rank in 2019 and 2022.

Table 4 below provides a detailed overview of Uttar Pradesh’s annual rankings and percentage shares in India’s domestic and foreign tourism from 2016 to 2022, showcasing the state’s resilience and strategic importance in the tourism sector. This data highlights how Uttar Pradesh continues to play a vital role in shaping the country’s tourism economy, even amidst challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic.

Uttar Pradesh has demonstrated consistent dominance in domestic tourism, maintaining a top rank from 2016 to 2022, with significant milestones such as achieving the 1st rank in 2019 (23.10% share) and again in 2022 (18.4% share). Events like the Kumbh Mela and strategic promotional campaigns have been instrumental in driving this growth.

In contrast, foreign tourism performance has been more volatile. While the state ranked consistently 3rd from 2016 to 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp decline in 2021, dropping its rank to 6th with a 4.24% share. Recovery in 2022 brought the rank up to 5th (7.6% share), but it remains below pre-pandemic levels.

The data underscores Uttar Pradesh’s resilience in domestic tourism recovery, driven by cultural and religious attractions. However, challenges persist in regaining international tourist numbers due to global disruptions, competition, and limited international marketing efforts. Focused strategies are needed to enhance foreign tourism while sustaining the momentum in domestic growth.

Findings

The findings of the study are the following which provide critical insights into Uttar Pradesh's tourism growth, challenges, and recovery trends.

1. Annual Tourist Arrival Trends (2016–2023)

Uttar Pradesh (2016–2023) highlights significant growth, disruption, and recovery. Between 2016 and 2019, total tourist arrivals peaked at 540.6 million in 2019, an 87.1% increase, primarily driven by domestic tourism growth of 87.96%, supported by major cultural events like the Maha Kumbh Mela. Foreign tourism also grew by 25.50%, showcasing Uttar Pradesh’s rising global appeal.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused an unprecedented decline, with total arrivals dropping by 84%, domestic tourism falling to 8.61 crore, and foreign arrivals declining by 81% due to global travel restrictions.

The recovery phase (2021–2023) demonstrated resilience, with domestic tourism leading the revival. By 2022, domestic arrivals surged by 190%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, while foreign tourism grew 1351%, though absolute numbers remained modest. By 2023, total arrivals reached 48.01 crore, with domestic tourism close to 2019 levels and foreign arrivals increasing by 147%, though still below pre-pandemic figures.

Domestic tourism consistently dominated, contributing over 99% of total arrivals, reflecting its critical role in the state’s recovery. However, the slower recovery of foreign tourism highlights the need for focused international marketing and infrastructure improvements to attract global visitors. These trends underline Uttar Pradesh’s resilience and the importance of strategic planning for sustainable growth.

2. Regional Tourism Trends (2016–2023)

Tourist arrivals in Uttar Pradesh grew steadily until 2019, peaking at 540.6 million, with notable contributions from Agra, Prayagraj, and Varanasi. Prayagraj saw an extraordinary surge in 2019 (289.96 million visitors) due to the Maha Kumbh Mela.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp decline in 2020, with total footfall dropping to 87 million, severely affecting all regions. Recovery began in 2021, and by 2023, tourist numbers rebounded to 467.75 million, nearing pre-pandemic levels.

Agra consistently recorded the highest footfall, reaching 105 million in 2023, while Varanasi and Prayagraj demonstrated robust growth due to their cultural and religious appeal. Ayodhya emerged as a rising destination post-2021, with visitors increasing to 63 million in 2023, driven by recent developments and promotions.

Smaller regions like Bareilly and Gorakhpur saw slower recovery but moderate growth by 2023. The data underscores the resilience of cultural and religious tourism in Uttar Pradesh, with key regions driving the recovery while highlighting the need for further promotion of lesser-visited areas.

3. Financial Performance of the Tourism Sector (2016–2023)

Uttar Pradesh’s tourism sector underscores significant trends in revenue receipts, expenditures, and budget deficits over the period, revealing both progress and persistent challenges.

Receipts exhibited notable shortfalls in the early years, as evidenced by actual revenue of 1.18 crore in 2016-17 compared to the expected 5 crore. Similarly, in 2018-19, receipts reached only 1.47 crore against a projection of 5.59 crore. However, a positive trend emerged in the later years, particularly in 2021-22 and 2022-23, where actual receipts exceeded expectations at 8.87 crore and 8.78 crore, respectively. These improvements reflect enhanced revenue collection mechanisms and greater fiscal discipline.

Expenditures, both revenue and capital, consistently fell short of projections, pointing to inefficiencies in resource utilization. Revenue expenditure, which pertains to operational spending, was significantly lower than anticipated in several years, such as 2020-21, when only 54.43 crore was spent against the expected 116.50 crore. Capital expenditure, crucial for infrastructure development, also demonstrated chronic underperformance. For instance, in 2017-18, actual capital expenditure was 354 crore compared to the expected 2,430.99 crore, indicating delays or inefficiencies in executing developmental projects.

Budget deficits were a recurring challenge, with actual deficits consistently surpassing expected levels. In 2017-18, the deficit reached 3,133.70 crore, exceeding the expected 2,779.70 crore, and in 2022-23, the deficit rose to 2,639.65 crore against a projection of 1,786.44 crore. These figures highlight structural fiscal imbalances and the state’s struggle to align expenditures with revenue generation.

Overall, while improvements in revenue receipts in recent years signal progress, the sector continues to grapple with inefficiencies in capital expenditure and persistent budget deficits. The sharp rise in total expenditure post-2020 indicates efforts to stimulate recovery, yet the consistent fiscal stress underscores the need for enhanced financial management and strategic allocation of resources. These findings emphasize the critical importance of addressing structural inefficiencies to ensure the long-term sustainability and growth of Uttar Pradesh’s tourism sector.

4. Uttar Pradesh’s Contribution to National Tourism

Uttar Pradesh plays a pivotal role in India’s tourism landscape, consistently ranking among the top contributors to domestic and foreign tourism due to its rich cultural heritage and iconic destinations such as the Taj Mahal, Varanasi Ghats, and Ayodhya. From 2016 to 2022, the state maintained strong performance in domestic tourism, achieving the 1st rank in 2019 (23.10% share) and 2022 (18.4% share). Key drivers of this success include cultural and religious events like the Kumbh Mela and targeted promotional campaigns.

Foreign tourism, however, has been more volatile. The state ranked 3rd in foreign tourism from 2016 to 2020, but the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp decline, with its rank dropping to 6th in 2021 (4.24% share). Recovery efforts brought the state back to 5th place in 2022 (7.6% share), though it remains below pre-pandemic levels.

The data highlights Uttar Pradesh’s resilience in domestic tourism, which dominates its visitor base, while foreign tourism recovery faces challenges due to global disruptions, competition, and limited international marketing.

Conclusion

The study underscores Uttar Pradesh’s remarkable resilience and adaptability in the face of challenges, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the state's robust recovery trajectory in the tourism sector. By 2023, total tourist arrivals reached 48.01 crore, with domestic tourism nearly returning to pre-pandemic levels and foreign tourism showing encouraging growth. This recovery reflects Uttar Pradesh’s ability to leverage its rich cultural and religious heritage to attract visitors even in adverse circumstances.

Regionally, Agra maintained its position as a premier destination, while Varanasi, Prayagraj, and Ayodhya emerged as key growth hubs, driven by cultural, religious, and strategic developments. The recovery of smaller regions like Bareilly and Gorakhpur further demonstrates the potential for balanced tourism growth across the state.

Financially, the state has shown progress in revenue collection, with receipts exceeding expectations in recent years. While capital expenditure faced delays, its strategic reallocation provides a strong foundation for long-term tourism infrastructure development. Persistent budget deficits highlight Uttar Pradesh’s commitment to prioritizing investments in tourism, ensuring sustained sectoral growth.

Uttar Pradesh’s consistent dominance in domestic tourism and its improving performance in foreign tourism solidify its position as a key player in India’s tourism landscape. The state’s leadership in promoting cultural and religious tourism, coupled with its efforts to address challenges and explore international opportunities, sets a strong precedent for future growth. A strategic focus on international marketing, infrastructure development, and balanced regional promotion will be crucial for Uttar Pradesh to strengthen its global footprint and sustain its tourism-led economic contributions.

Suggestions for the future Study 1. Real-Time Financial Monitoring:
Implementing a digital dashboard to track revenue collection, expenditures, and project progress in real-time enhances transparency and enables swift corrective actions. This ensures that inefficiencies are promptly addressed and financial performance is consistently aligned with sectoral goals.
2. Data-Driven Resource Allocation:
Using data analytics to prioritize investments in high-impact tourism projects ensures optimal resource allocation. This approach bridges gaps between expected and actual outcomes, maximizing the return on investment and supporting balanced tourism growth across regions.
3. Enhanced Project Management:
Integrating project management software to provide regular updates on timelines, budgets, and milestones improves accountability and ensures the timely completion of critical infrastructure projects. This fosters efficient execution and enhances the overall impact of developmental initiatives.
4. Regular Audits and Feedback Mechanisms:
Conducting quarterly audits of financial performance and project outcomes, coupled with stakeholder feedback, strengthens oversight and provides opportunities to refine strategies. This ensures ongoing alignment with tourism objectives and improves financial sustainability.
5. Capacity Building for Stakeholders:
Training officials and stakeholders in modern fiscal tools and project management systems builds capacity for maintaining transparency and efficiency. This creates a skilled workforce capable of optimizing resource utilization and driving sustainable growth in the tourism sector.
6. Organize Large-Scale Festivals and Events:
Expand the scope of events like the Kumbh Mela to include international cultural festivals, trade fairs, or sporting events to draw diverse crowds.
Limitation of the Study 1. Dependence on Secondary Data: The study relies entirely on pre-existing datasets, which may lack granularity or real-time updates.
2. Data Discrepancies: Variations in data collection methods across sources may affect consistency and comparability.
3. Lack of Primary Insights: The absence of stakeholder interviews or surveys limits the contextual understanding of specific challenges.
4. Regional Variability: While the study captures trends across major regions of Uttar Pradesh, data availability may not equally represent smaller or less-documented areas.
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