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| An Analysis of Trade Potential among BRICS Nations | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Paper Id :
16358 Submission Date :
05/08/2022 Acceptance Date :
19/08/2022 Publication Date :
25/08/2022
This is an open-access research paper/article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. For verification of this paper, please visit on
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| Abstract | The purpose of the study is to identify the trade Potential among the BRICS nations. The study uses Export diversification (EDI), Export concentration (ECI), Import Concentration (ICI) and Import Diversification (IDI) indices and trade volumes to determine the trade Potential among BRICS nations. In terms of Export diversification, the Russia, China and Brazil were found with the increasing trend of EDI which signifies that these countries have more competitiveness among BRICS nations and have economic potential to compete with other developed countries. Similarly, in terms of Import diversification India and China are at high among BRICS nations which is the witness of their increasing growth trajectory and may contribute to their development significantly. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Keywords | Trade policy, Empirical studies of Trade Potential, Regional Blocs JEL Codes : F13, F14, F19. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Introduction |
BRICS in Global Economy-
From the start of the 21st century, the BRICS countries have been well-thought-out the five emerging developing economies in the world. BRICS contributes seventeen percent in world trade and thirty percent in world GDP. Originally, the term BRIC was used by economists to denote emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, however, these countries have involved in annual summits since 2009, and the group has included South Africa in 2010. During 2008 to 2018, the world GDP has grown by 2.5 percent on an average, every year. However, GDP growth in the BRICS nations has grown faster than the world GDP growth at 3.9 percent, during 2008-18, courtesy India and China, which grew on an average by 6.7 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively. In 2021, China has the largest GDP of the BRICS country, around at 17 trillion U.S. dollars, while the others have generated below three trillion. Collectively, the BRICS alliance has a GDP over 25 trillion U.S. dollars in 2021, which is somewhat more than GDP of the United States. World Economic Forum has ranked China at 5th, India at 30th, Russia 35th, Brazil at 41th and South Africa at 45th place in global manufacturing index. India has been addressed as the fifth largest manufacturer in world with value USD 400 billion in 2016. Out of total BRICS trade, the contribution by its member are 12.08, 2, 1.11, 1.56 and 0.51 for China, India, Brazil, Russia and South Africa respectively. Intra-BRICS export has been increased from 4.27 percent to 9.29 percent during 2001 to 2021. Although, BRICS exports with the rest of world has been decreased from 95.73 percent to 90.71 percent during 2001-2021 which confirms its changing position in the world order. |
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| Aim of study | 1. To analyse the trends of Trade among Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa 2. To analyse the trade Competitiveness of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa using Export/ Import Diversification and Export/ Import Concentration indices. 3. To derive policy implications for regional blocs or grouping. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Review of Literature | No country in this world can produce everything to fulfil all needs of its people as given the Law of Scarcity. Therefore, the exchange/ trade at subnational, national and international level is essential and required. Indeed, there is scope of inter and intra- Industry trade among different countries of the world. Burange et al. (2013) has proposed that trade liberalization boosts the economy of nation and hence promote its value of trade. Without any free trade agreements, a country has to face several barriers like tariff, currency swaps, export licenses, import licenses, import quotas, subsidiaries etc. In order to overcome such barriers countries, need to come together to form regional trade agreement. BRICS is an acronym for the association of five nations i.e., Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. MEA GOI (2013) the term BRIC was coined by O’Neil of Goldman Sacks in his paper “The world needs better economic BRIC”. EXIM bank of India (2016) 1st BRIC Meeting of foreign Ministers was held in 2006 which laid the foundation stone of BRIC. Earlier before the induction of South Africa, it was termed as BRIC with four member nations. In 2010 South Africa joined BRIC in 2010 to form it BRICS and attended third BRICS Summit as a formal member. Morazan et al. (2012) highlighted that either the GDP and economy of South Africa are much smaller than the other four members but still it had a greater potential with stable political structure. It has been ranked as upper middle-income country and only African country to get place in G 20. Due to these potentials the BRIC members agreed to invite South Africa to join BRIC. BRICS (2017) BRICS has undergone nine summits from 2009 to 2017 i.e.,1st BRIC summit held in June 2009 Yekaterinburg, Russia to discuss the issues like global financial crisis, potential of BRIC dialogue, food security, climate change, energy security, the G20 summit etc. It summarized a joint statement on Global Food Security. The 2nd summit of BRIC was held in April 2010 in Brasillia, Brazil to address the issues including the global financial crisis, the selection of mechanism of World Bank and senior management of IMF, G 20 affairs, UN reform, climate change etc. It adopted the joint statement to generate BRIC cooperation and coordination. The 3rd BRIC summit was held in April 2011, in Sanya city of China with the theme of “Broad vision, Shared Prosperity” to move forward for cooperation within BRICS. The 4th summit was held in New Delhi in March 2012, India with the theme of “BRICS Partnership for Global Stability, Security and Prosperity” to discuss upon the issues of global governance and sustainable development. The 5th BRICS Summit was held in March 2013 in Durban, South Africa under the theme “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for development, Integration and Industrialization”. They proposed the establishment of Contingent Reserve Arrangement and New Development Bank and along with Business council and Think tank Council. The 6th BRICS Summit was held in Fortaleza in July 2014, Brazil under the theme “Inclusive Growth: Sustainable Solutions” to discuss the issues like sustainable development, political coordination and inclusive growth. The 7th BRICS Summit was held in July 2015 in Ufa city of Russia under the theme “BRICS Partnership- a Powerful Factor of Global Development” on the issues including global economic cooperation. The 8th BRICS Summit was held in Goa in October 2016, India under the theme “Building Responsive, inclusive and Collective Solutions” to discuss on the issues relating to international political, global governance and economic issues, climate change, counter terrorism, BRICS Cooperation etc. The 9th BRICS Summit was held in Xiamen September 2017, China under the theme “BRICS: Stronger Partnership for a Brighter Future” for the issues including global economic governance, promoting development of sports, cooperation and common development, cultural exchanges, etc. Several researchers like Burange et al. (2013), Bhattacharya & Bhattacharya (2016), Rasoulinezhad & Jabalameli (2018), Chatterjee et al. (2014) have supported that foreign trade cooperation among the BRICS nations have positive impact over the economic growth of India. Bhattacharya & Bhattacharya (2016) proposed that India has become an open economy not in BRICS but also worldwide. The study supported that India’s trade openness has exceeded China, Russia and Brazil. The study also revealed that by increasing the share of BRICS in international trade it will lead to a significant position of BRICS in international trade negotiation and global supply chain. EXIM Bank of India (2016) highlighted that Intra-BRICS Trade relation in his paper “Intra-BRICS Trade: An Indian Perspective”. The suggestions of the study to enhance the cooperation in BRICS trade were by improving transparency, of trade; creating favorable conditions for development of multilateral trade and FDI in BRICS nations; by streamlining and increasing efficiency of secretarial procedures to facilitate and accelerate multilateral trade and investment and by enhancing information on trade policies. EXIM Bank of India (2020) in association with FICCI in its study, “Promoting Trade, Investment and Business Cooperation in BRICS nations” emphasized that the basic principle under which the BRICS as a formal association was forged was to primarily become a more constructive and progressive union in the developing world. Amidst heterogeneity amongst the member economies, the countries have continued to look forward towards having worked together in multiple areas, such as domestic institutions, social programs, infrastructure, governance, domestic institutions, social programs, investment and trade and amongst many others that can gradually put them at an advantageous position as compared to developed countries. The five nations collective hold less than fifteen percent voting rights in both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), yet cumulatively, these economies are predicted to beat the cumulative size of G7 economies by 2032. Research
Methodology The Data on concerned variables of the studyhas been
collected from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development statistic
data for the period 1996-2020 (United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development, 2021). Also, the study used secondary data from WITS, UNCTARD
BRICS website etc. during 2001-02 to 2020-21. The study describes the intra and
inter trade competitiveness of the BRICS Nations. It has used percentage,
export concentration index, export diversification index and import
concentration index, Import diversification index.
An index value closer to 1 indicates that a country’s exports
or imports are highly concentrated on a few sectors/products. On the contrary,
values closer to 0 reflect exports or imports are more homogeneously
distributed among a series of products/ sectors(United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development, 2021).
Where: hij- share of product I in total exports or imports of
country or country group j hi-
share of product I in total world exports or imports.
The diversification index takes values between 0 and 1. A value closer to 1 indicates greater divergence from the world pattern (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2021).
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| Result and Discussion | The discussion of the present study is divided in three sections. The first section of the study focuses over intra-regional trade and trade with rest of the world. In second section trade potential is shown with the help of Export/ Imports diversification and export/ imports concentration index. In third section the study determines the Export potential by analyzing actual trade with each other and how much they can increase their trade with each other by making changes in their respective trade policies. Section I: Analysis of
Intra Regional Trade and Trade with rest of the World Table: 5.1
Intra-Regional Trade among BRICS (in Percentage term)
Source:
Calculation based on UNTAD Figure 5.1.1
Exports of Intra BRICS (in Percentage term)
Source:
Compiled by researcher using data in table 5.1
Figure 5.1.2
Exports of BRICS to Rest of the world (in Percentage term)
Source:
Compiled by researcher using data in table 5.1
Figure 5.1.3
Imports of Intra BRICS (in Percentage term)
Source:
Compiled by researcher using data in table 5.1 Figure 5.1.4 Imports of BRICS to Rest of the world (in Percentage term)
Source:
Compiled by researcher using data in table 5.1 Table
5.1, figures 5.1.1, 5.1.2, 5.1.3 and 5.1.4 show that the Intra
regional Trade and trade with rest of the world of BRICS Nations from 2001 to
2021. It can be observed that the trade of BRICS Nations with rest of the world
is much more than among themselves. Presently, they don’t have any free trade
agreement among themselves while FTA offers trade potential for all the BRICS
Nations. In 2001 intra-BRICS exports were 4.27 % while with rest of the world
were 95.73 %. It rose continuously in the consecutive years but not at the
appealing rate. In 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2021 it was 5.69, 8.50, 9.29
respectively while with rest of the world exports in these years were 94.31,
91.50, 92.29, 90.71. Similarly, Intra BRICS imports in 2001 were 8.34 and with
rest of the world were 91.66. The import among BRICS Nations also shows an
upward trend which were 13.64, 15.75, 17.61 and 15.13 in 2005, 2010, 2015 and
2021 respectively while with rest of the world were 85.88, 83.86, 82.39 and
84.87 in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2021. Therefore, the results describe that the
intra trade among the BRICS nations is very low as compared with rest of the
world. It is clearly stated that with change in their trade policies they may
increase their intra trade potential by reducing trade with rest of the world. Section-II: Analysis of Trade Potential using
Export/Import Concentration and Diversification Index Table
5.2 Export Diversification Index and Export Concentration Index
Source:
UNCTAD, **EDI is the Export Diversification Index and *ECI is
the Export Concentration Index. Figure
5.2.1 Export Diversification Index of BRICS
Source: Compiled by researcher using data in table 5.2 Figure 5.2.2
Export Concentration Index of BRICS
Source:
Compiled by researcher using data in table 5.2 The higher
value of Export Concentration Index reveals that country relies on limited
products for its export basket. Basically, developed countries deal in variety
of products. It can be seen from table 5.2 and figure 5.2.2 that
in Brazil ECI in 2001 was 0.089 which decreased to 0.087 in 2005. It reached to
0.153 in 2010 and 0.128 in 2015. Then with increasing trend finally it reached
to 0.20. In 2001 China’s ECI was lowest as compared to other BRICS nations. It
rose from 0.80 in 2001 to 0.110 in 2005. It reduced to 0.107 and 0.104 and
0.093 in 2010, 2015 and 2021 respectively. In 2001 India’s ECI was 0.563 which
reduced to 0.542, 0.502, 0.436 and 0.12 in 2005, 2010 and 2015 and in 2021
respectively. It reveals that Indian exports are moving ahead for diversified
export basket. In Russia ECI was 0.293 in 2001 which reached to 0.352, 0.366,
0.316 and 0.295 in 2005, 2010 2015 and 2021 respectively. In South Africa ECI
was 0.142 in 2001 which reached to 0.138, 0.136, 0.12, 0.16 and 0.20 in 2005,
2010, 2015, 2020 and 2021 respectively. In all the BRICS nations the trend of
ECI is low which automatically implies their tendency towards the diversity of
export products in the world market. Overall, the highest trend of Russian EDI
with least fluctuations followed by south Africa, Brazil, India and China
implies that relatively Russian basket of exports has more exportable products
than its counterparts. Therefore, like Russia, other counterparts should focus
on variety of products to enhance their importance in BRICS group particularly
and competitiveness in general world trade. Figure 5.3.2
Import Concentration Index of BRICS
Table 5.3 and
Figure 5.3.1 show the
Import Diversification Index and Import Concentration Index of the
BRICS nations. Import Diversification Index of Brazil is declining from 2002 to
2006 i.e., from 0.32 to 0.24. It shows the stable trend from 2007 to
2014. Since 2015 trend of Brazilian’s import concentration index is rising. The
value closure to 1 indicates more differences in the structure of country’s
import with that of world’s average. Higher the value of import diversification
reveals that the country has diversified basket of products to be imported.
This helps understand the dependence of the country. In dragon economy it
shows stable trend during 2001 to 2021 around average of 0.37. In India, it
shows stable trend close to average of 0.43 but more among BRICS group. In
Russia IDI the trend is around average value i.e., 0.31 from 2001 to 2021
except from 2015 to 2020. In South Africa the IDI values showed low and stable
trend during 2001 to 2021 around 0.25. Therefore, the countries like India and
China with highest values of IDI should focus import substitution and trade
creation strategy. The Import
Concentration Index reveals that country relies on limited products for its
import basket. The higher value of ICI closure to 1 show that country rely on
less imported items. It can be seen from table 5.3 and figure 5.3.2 that
the India’s ICI is highest among BRICS nations followed by China and South
Africa. Therefore, it is evident that countries like India and China have
focused on import substitution and trade creation in variety of products
through their policies. The Russian federation and Brazil have relatively very
low value of ICI. The ICI value in case of China shows stable upward trend but
less then India. Also, countries like Russia, Brazil and South Africa should
focus on the same strategy since the trend of ICI value is declining in these
countries with low fluctuations during the study period. Section-III
Policy Implications in relation to Export Potential Table 5.4
Export Potential Matrix (in US Dollars)
Source:
Compiled by Researcher using data from UNCTAD & WITS Figure: 5.4.1 Export Potential Matrix (in US
Dollars)
Source: Compiled by researcher using data in table 5.4 Figure: 5.4.2 Export Potential Mapping of BRICS (in US Dollars)
Table 3, Figure 3.1, 3.2 show the export potential among the BRICS Nations. Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa have export potential in China i.e., 57 billion, 24 billion, 33 billion and 9.4 billion respectively. Among BRICS countries China has larger trade potential than other countries. To reap more benefits China should liberalize its tariff policy regarding trade with BRICS group and with rest of the world. |
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| Conclusion | On the basis of above analysis of EDI, ECI, IDI and ICI it can be concluded that with the changes in tariff policies BRICS nations can improve their trade potential among them because this group with 17 per cent share in world trade provides a great potential for each other. These countries have scope to improve their performance of manufacturing sector to facilitate the production of manufacturing products like developed countries rather than to export more of agricultural and allied products. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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