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India emerged as a newly industrializing economy and scored a prominent position in the world economy but is still behind the many other industrialized economies in comparison to the industrial share in the world GDP. The objective of this paper is to study the effect of industrial policies on industrialization by analyzing the patterns and trends in the variables such as foreign direct investment, trade, tariffs, and industrial output using ratio and percentage methods in India for the period 1991 to 2020. The findings of the study suggest that there is a positive relation between globalization and industrial output but negative trend in industrial growth. Trends indicate an increasing rate of growth in variables such as foreign investment and debt; international trade, and infrastructure in India during the reference period. So, the government of India should frame the proper and suitable policies to increase industrial growth rate to reap the benefits of Globalization to the fullest extent so that economic performance may be enhanced.

To analyze the growth patterns and trends of important determinants, and industrial policies related to the growth process of industrialization in India to achieve the ultimate purpose of development.

Several theories highlighted the role of globalization in industrialization and economic growth. So, the present paper has taken the theoretical frameworks from the following theories as:

Adam Smith's (1776) prescriptions in terms of division of labour, capital accumulation, expansion of markets, and liberal government are very useful and conducive to economic development.

Arthur Lewis (1954) wrote of the possibility of a modern sector absorbing surplus labour at a constant real wage keeping in mind that manufacturing would be the dominant ‘modern’ employer.

Gerschenkron (1962) accepts that industrialization is the base of economic growth and the transformation of the economy into an industrial economy by import substitution and the use of capital-intensive techniques and borrowed technology.

Kaldor (1967) explained the four stages of growth as the first stage is the setting up of domestic consumer goods industries, the second by positive net exports due to increased production, the third setup of capital goods industries, fourth exports of capital goods. He suggested that developing countries must industrialize by protection.

Based on the above theoretical perspectives, an extensive literature has been explored on industrialization, economic growth and Globalization while keeping in mind the objectives of the research paper.

Chenery (1982) identified common experiences of many countries with industrialization and explored that most developing countries have adopted a policy of import substitution in the early stages of industrialization and after that liberalization and more open trade policies were followed.

Harris (2005) analyzed the reasons and impact of powerful economic positions of emerging economies and found that the success of these economies is based on foreign direct investment, cross-border mergers, internationalized assembly lines, the free flow of capital, global labor stratification, and multilateral institutions to build up common rules on finance, trade, and investments.  

Kniivila (2007) described technology diffusion as the main driver of industrialization but the author found that international trade, trade openness, and foreign direct investment, are the main drivers of technology transfer and increased productivity growth.

Marinov and Marinova (2012) described the process of internationalization and found that foreign direct investment in emerging economies has been increasing significantly. Fast internationalization is observed in the economies due to strategic policies which are well suited to the new conditions of the global economy and supported by their governments.

Romano and Trau (2017) established the relationship between structural changes and the process of industrial development. The authors concluded that emerging economies became industrialized in a few years by acquiring competencies in manufacturing industries as a result of the globalization of production.

Adewale (2017) investigated the role played by import substitution industrialization (ISI) as a growth driver on economic performance by employing unit root, cointegration, and causality test. The author recommended based on his analysis that developing countries should follow globalization and export promotion in the long run when they attained certain threshold of industrial development.

Hauge (2019) evaluated the industrialization experiences of South Korea and Taiwan regarding the Global Value Chains oriented industrial policies. The author suggested that while framing the industrial policies, the policymakers should consider the need for governments to ensure technology transfer with linking up to transnational corporations/attracting Foreign Direct Investment and technological know-how by offering more incentives for the purpose of fast industrialization.

Mallick, Mahalik and Padhan (2020) explored the effects of economic globalization on income inequality by using ARDL model to establish the both short-run and long-run relationship among the variables in the models. Its results reveal FDI and remittances inflows, sectoral output, GDP, human capital Index, government spending on education and health, and economic growth are positively correlated with globalization.

Munjal (2022) explained that fast industrialization in India occurred due to low wage costs, and developed human resources. These factors affect trade, MNCs, FDI, technology etc. positively which is possible with globalization.

Arif, Sadiq and et al. (2020) examined the relationship between trade openness, financial development and economic growth. Their results revealed that trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth but policies should be checked and aligned with the other countries.

Thirlwall (1997) analyzed that industrialization promotes savings, capital accumulation and offers higher investment opportunities, and promotes economies of scale by driving technological progress, provides spillover effects to other sectors through linkages (Hirschman, 1958), which are less available in agriculture and services sectors (Szirmai, 2012). Lewis, Chenery, Lucas, and Baghwati perceived that international trade is the engine of economic growth. The institutions play an important role to identify and remove barriers and facilitating interactions and strategies (Hoskisson et al., 2000; Tridico, 2008; Peng et al., 2008), promoting innovation, and linking up to transnational corporations/attracting foreign direct investment by offering more incentives for domestic industrialization (Hauge, 2020).

Various perspectives discussed above prove that globalization of economic activities for industrialization is a very significant determinant of achieving higher levels of economic growth. Capital formation, foreign debt, tariffs, incentives for exports, international relations and agreements, foreign direct investment, free international trade, government institutions, etc. are important determinants of it. This paper tries to find the effects of steps taken in the industrial policies on industrial growth of India.

Globalization and the Industrial Policies in India
On the eve of independence, there were various structural and economic inadequacies in the industrial sector as the dominance of consumer goods industries by having a ratio of 62:38 to the producer goods industries in 1953, weak infrastructure, less skilled and efficient human resources, ownership by few people etc. Then, the policymakers felt the need of framing industrial policies for the high growth of industrialization as means to fasten and sustain the Indian economy (Kapila, 2011). They assumed while framing industrial policy that state intervention is a must for rapid industrialization to attain self-reliance. For this purpose, during the initial phase of development, a series of policy instruments were developed based on protectionist and import substitution strategies with widespread state intervention and regulation. To promote domestic industries, the government levied high tariffs, restricted foreign capital, imposed import restrictions, subsidized the nationalized firms, and directed investment funds to them to ensure the development of national capabilities.
The Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (1973) was passed to regulate foreign exchange transactions to limit the use of foreign exchange resources which deceptively controlled the freedom of foreign investors. The Policy Statement of 1977 also issued a list of industries where indigenous technology was already available, and no foreign collaboration of financial or technical nature was allowed. A highly protected environment, which led to various distortions such as low product quality, technological advancement and less focus on economies of scale.
After facing the 1991 balance of payment crisis, India forced nation to open up its economy and adopt relevant monetary, fiscal and trade policies. In response to this, a new economic policy was announced in 1991, in which several economic reforms were implemented on various fronts to liberalize the external sector, incentives for the export sector, partial convertibility of Indian currency, significant dispense of industrial licensing, reduction of import tariffs, removal of quantitative restrictions, facilitation to foreign investment, and technology transfers which lead to the more dramatic shift in the economy (Kundu,2017).
The National Manufacturing Policy (2011) has an immense focus on greater value addition and technological advancement to achieve inclusive growth in the manufacturing sector and international competitiveness of industrial exports. To achieve these goals, the government gave special attention to foreign investment and technology, reduction and rationalization of procedural and regulatory formalities, financial and institutional mechanisms to enhance productivity and quality, to promote and strengthen employment-intensive industries, capital goods industries with suitable trade Policy (DIPP, 2011).
To facilitate industrialization, the, Development and Regulation Act (1951), Monopoly and Restrictive Trade Practices Act (1970) and state monopoly were abolished in almost all industries. The industries reserved for the public sector reduced from 18 to 3 of strategic importance (Ahluwalia, 2002). Additionally, the consumer goods industries were largely relegated to private enterprises. In addition to the above, the other steps as free determination of interest rate by the commercial banks and an increase in the investment limit for the small-scale industries and freedom to import capital goods were taken to liberalize the economy.
Foreign Investment Policy
Recognizing the complementarily of domestic and foreign investment, foreign direct investment (FDI) was accorded a significant role in policy announcements of 1991. FDI up to 51 per cent foreign equity was also allowed in export activities. The limit was subsequently raised from 51 per cent to 74 per cent and then to 100 per cent for many of these industries. Presently FDI is permitted up to 100 per cent on the automatic route in most sectors except a small list subject to sectoral rules/regulations applicable. For the remaining industries, it is allowed through specific government approval accorded on the recommendation of the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB).
For all approved foreign investments, companies were allowed to 100 per cent repatriate capital, profits, dividends, royalties, etc. after payment of tax. Income tax holiday of ten years for firms located in Export Processing Zone firms and five years for other investors, finance at concessional interest rates for export-oriented industries was provided.
Foreign Trade Policy
Commerce Ministry is working closely with the Finance Ministry to ease credit flow to the export sector, diversify India’s exports and establish Free Trade Agreements as a means of correcting India’s balance of trade.
Economic Integration with Various Regional, International institutes and trade Groups
Economic integration is expected to promote FDI, exchange information for investment, reduction in trade costs, enlarge the market by removing tariff barriers on intraregional trade and improve policy credibility, allow for the exploration of economies of scale and induce better utilization of resources. Believing this, India became a member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in 1985. After that as a part of the IMF agreement, India accepted IMF obligation in 1994 on current account convertibility (IMF, 2015). India also joined World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995 and started to do efforts to eliminate trade barriers and promote free international trade, which fasten the process of industrialization. India has established international agreements and negotiated remarkable reductions in barriers to commerce to strengthen its relation with East and Southeast Asian economies. India became the partner of ASEAN in 1995 and a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum in 1996. Further, as a part of its trade promotional measures, India signed trade agreements with Sri Lanka, Singapore, South Korea Japan, Malaysia and Afghanistan from time to time to facilitate free movements of goods, services, capital and people among the member countries.
Trade Infrastructure for Export Scheme
This assists in setting up and up-gradation of infrastructure projects with overwhelming export linkages. India initiated the establishment of 21 Export Processing Zones (EPZs) as a part of the export promotion strategy. However, later on, these were converted into Special Economic Zones (SEZs) through the 2000 Export-Import (EXIM) policy (Aggarwal, 2004). Make in India was launched in 2014 to make India the hub of manufacturing. The Multi-Modal Logistics Parks are a key policy to improve the country’s logistics sector by lowering freight costs, reducing vehicular pollution and congestion and cutting warehouse costs to promote moments of goods for domestic and global trade. A National Logistics Portal will be a single window marketplace to reduce logistics costs by linking all stakeholders. Logistics Data Bank Project is one part of the Ease of Doing Business initiative by the government of India. Industrial corridor programme to the creation of world-class infrastructure and connectivity (Press Note, Ministry of Commerce). The electronic Hardware Technology Park/Software Technology Park scheme was introduced for building up a strong electronics industry and to enhance exports. National Investment and Manufacturing Zones are created to reduce logistics and transportation costs as well as to create industrial hubs. A ‘Technology Acquisition and Development Fund’ was also set up to encourage international technology transfer and innovation in the country (DPIIT, 2011).
Trade Promotion Organizations are established to promote trade and organize the India International Trade Fair (IITF) from 1980 every year; India International Convention and Expo Centre; Trade Promotion Council of India to organize exhibitions in various countries; Indian Institute of Foreign Trade to develop human resources and conducting research; The Centre for Trade and Investment Law to create a dedicated pool of legal experts for investment negotiations and dispute settlement.
Ease of doing business for exporters
Director General of Foreign Trade has taken several measures such as upgrading the existing IT hardware, an online grievance redressal service launched in 2017, an online view of shipping bill data, the online platform for exporters to self-generation of Importer Exporter Code (IEC) to create ease of doing business for exporters. India is improving its ranking in ease of doing business as India has made a leap of 14 ranks in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Ranking in 2019 to be ranked at 63. An upward move of 67 ranks is the highest improvement in 2019 from 2017.
Table:1 Ease of doing business, India's Ranking in the World

Year	Rank	Year	Rank	Year	Rank
2009	133	2013	134	2017	130
2010	134	2014	142	2018	100
2011	132	2015	130	2019	77
2012	132	2016	130	2020	63

Source:  Economic Survey of India, 2020-21
Analysis and Results
The potential of industrial policies and their effectiveness needs a deep appraisal of the effects of the above measures as a reduction in tariffs, liberalization of trade, FDI etc., on the determinants of industrialization and economic growth as FDI, gross domestic product, exports, imports, and industrial output.
Tariff Rate
Because of these policies, tariffs were drastically reduced, various incentives were provided, quantitative restrictions were removed significantly and the Indian economy became more trade-oriented. As a result of trade policy changes, by liberalizing trade the average weighted tariff reduced to 6.19 in 2020 from 56.36 per cent in 1990 as shown in fig. 1.
Figure: 1 Applied tariff rate

           Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/

Foreign Direct Investment

FDI produces positive outcomes to generate more productive and highly paid employment, wide markets, global financial resources, international competitiveness, and the creation and strengthening of institutions. In developing countries like India, FDI plays a significant role as a capital investment whereas domestic investment is less. Globalization has a positive impact on FDI. In India, FDI increased from 0.0735376383885 billion US$ in 1991to 64.362364994375 billion in 2020. Its share in GDP of India increased from 0.0272 per cent of GDP in1991to2.4127 per cent of GDP in 2020 as shown in fig. 2. 

Figure: 2 Globalization and FDI

Source: World Bank, KOF globalization Index
Foreign Trade

Foreign trade is very important for developing countries as these economies require more heavy capital goods, equipment, machinery, advanced technical know-how, and raw materials, which can be supplied by advanced countries with the liberalization of imports and exports to increase income via foreign trade multiplier and increase foreign exchange earnings to facilitate the expansion of imports. Globalization affects foreign trade positively as shown in fig.3.

Figure: 3 Exports, Imports, and Trade percent of GDP

Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/  
Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing output and External Debt
These variables also show positive trend with globalization. GDP is increasing but external debt is also increasing at fast rate which can be seen in figure 4.
Figure:4

Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/
Manufacturing output is increasing but its growth shows negative trend as shown in figure 4. Expenditure on research and development is very less in comparison to world average of 1.8 percent of GDP which can be seen from the table 2
Table: 2 Research and Development Expenditure percent of GDP

Year	R&D Exp. % of GDP	Year	R&D Exp. % of GDP	Year	R&D Exp. % of GDP
1996	0.639050007	2004	0.756900012	2012	0.743990004
1997	0.686689973	2005	0.824109972	2013	0.706420004
1998	0.703790009	2006	0.804729998	2014	0.701590002
1999	0.724129975	2007	0.805069983	2015	0.693099976
2000	0.756990016	2008	0.858759999	2016	0.669839978
2001	0.735909998	2009	0.833140016	2017	0.66602999
2002	0.72566998	2010	0.788489997	2018	0.655730009
2003	0.719290018	2011	0.755020022	2019	0.700000000

Source: World development indicators, World Bank

Figure: 5 Group wise Growth of Industrial Sector

Source: Various issues of Economic Survey of India, Government of India
Table:3 Descriptive Analysis of Industrial Sector

	N	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	Std. Deviation
Period 1991-2001
Mining	10	-1.90	9.80	3.2100	4.22491
Manufacturing	10	-.80	14.10	6.1500	3.97387
Electricity	10	4.00	8.50	6.5900	1.72205
General	10	.60	13.00	5.9600	3.44874
Period 2001-2021
Mining	20	-7.80	9.70	2.2750	4.09992
Manufacturing	20	-9.60	12.50	4.9300	4.81621
Electricity	20	-.50	8.40	4.9400	2.19051
General	20	-8.40	11.60	4.7000	4.33675
Period 1991-2021
Mining	30	-7.80	9.80	2.5867	4.09312
Manufacturing	30	-9.60	14.10	5.3367	4.52110
Electricity	30	-.50	8.50	5.4900	2.16562
General	30	-8.40	13.00	5.1200	4.04700

 Analysis based on values given in table 4.

The analysis suggests a positive effect of Globalization on Industrialization and economic growth. FDI, exports, reduction in tariffs, economic growth, and several agreements showed positive patterns and trends with Globalization in India. To achieve the desired level of economic growth of Indian industry, the findings suggest the proper rationalization of the duty structure, FDI should be encouraged to promote exports, technological advancement, and the search for export markets through promotional efforts and joint ventures with foreign investors. 

Challenges for India

However, there is an acute awareness that the gains from Globalization are very unevenly distributed within, as well as between, societies. The fast economic growth in some economies has increased their global economic importance significantly. But the globalization process leads to the concentration of the industrial production capacity in a few countries, including China, the United States, Japan, and Germany which creates fundamental challenges to tackle. Despite the rapid growth of Manufacturing Value Added (MVA) per capita in developing industrial economies, there are significant disparities in growth rates of industrialization among industrial countries. As global MVA per capita has continued to grow, accounting for USD 1,736 in 2017 compared to USD 1,251 in 2000. The median value of MVA per capita in 2017 was around USD 500, i.e., the majority of countries in the world achieve only USD 500 compared with USD 5,770 for industrialized economies (UNIDO, 2020), and the MVA in emerging industrial economies is dominated by China by increasing its share of MVA from 13.5 per cent in 2007 to 24.3 per cent in 2017. After excluding China these economies accounted for 16.4 per cent of global manufacturing production in 2017, while the share of other developing economies had 2.8 per cent and the least developed countries had 0.8 per cent. China has been heading the top ten largest manufacturers in the world, followed by the USA with a share of 15.0 per cent since 2010 (UNIDO, 2020) representing the most striking phenomenon in the world. As per projection, China will cross the USA by 2050 but other countries are not performing so well. There are remarkable differences in growth rates among countries in the developing world. It is a big challenge for India to overcome all these threats to expand the industrial sector adequately to achieve a desirable growth rate. 

Summary Tables:

Table: 4 Annual Growth Rates in Major Sectors of Industry from 1991-92 to 2020-21 (in Per cent)

Period (Weight)	Mining (10.4)	Manufacturing (79.4)	Electricity (10.2)	General (100)
1991-92	0.6	-0.8	8.5	0.6
1992-93	0.5	2.2	5	2.3
1993-94	3.5	6.1	7.4	6
1994-95	9.8	9.1	8.5	9.1
1995-96	9.7	14.1	8.1	13
1996-97	-1.9	7.3	4	6.1
1997-98	6.9	6.7	6.6	6.7
1998-99	-0.8	4.4	6.5	4.1
1999-00	1	7.1	7.3	6.7
2000-01	2.8	5.3	4	5
2001-02	1.2	2.9	3.1	2.7
2002-03	5.8	6	3.2	5.7
2003-04	5.2	7.4	5.1	7
2004-05	4.4	9.2	5.2	8.4
2005-06	1	9.1	5.2	8.2
2006-07	5.4	12.5	7.2	11.6
2007-08	5.1	9	6.4	8.5
2008-09	2.6	2.5	2.7	2.8
2009-10	9.7	10.8	6	10.3
2010-11	5.2	9	5.5	8.2
2011-12	-1.9	3	8.1	2.9
Period (Weight)	Mining (14.37)	Manufacturing (77.63)	Electricity (7.99)	General (100)
2012-13	-5.3	4.8	4	3.3
2013-14	-0.1	3.6	6.1	3.4
2014-15	-1.4	3.9	8.4	4
2015-16	4.3	3	5.7	3.4
2016-17	5.3	4.4	5.8	4.6
2017-18	2.3	4.6	5.4	4.4
2018-19	2.9	3.9	5.2	3.8
2019-20	1.6	-1.4	1	-0.8
2020-21	-7.8	-9.6	-0.5	-8.4

Note: IIP (Index of Industrial Production) Base Year: 1980-81 for the period 1991 to 2012.
Base Year: 2011-12 for the period 2012 to 2021.
Source: Economic Survey, (Various Issue), Ministry of Finance, Government of India, New Delhi

Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/

Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/country/IND/india

The data about all the variables were obtained from various issues published by the World Bank, World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund, United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Economic survey, etc. and the KOF institute for the period 1991-2020. A wide range of literature on Globalization is reviewed and analyzed.

To explore the trends and patterns in economic growth and industrialization and their determinant in India, statistical tools like averages, ratio analysis, percentages, relative shares, etc. are used.

The adoption of globalization has given mixed effects on the Indian economy. Although globalization makes fast growth of industrialization process in India by improving the allocative efficiency of resources, availability of finance, and international trade in the most cost-effective way by the procurement of cheaper raw materials from cheaper sources anywhere in the world by the way of the global inter-connectedness. The development of foreign competition, the adoption of advanced technology and the removal of restrictions and tariff barriers help to improve the quality of production. But it has produced adverse effects as well. At present, the impact of Globalization is in favour of industrialized countries as discussed above. But the growth of the Indian economy was mainly due to the contribution of the service sector because the share of manufacturing to GDP averaged at around 16 per cent between 1990 and 2015 (National Accounts Statistics, 2017 and 2015, MoSPI ). So, industrial Global economic integration should be managed to bring prosperity to India with the help of suitable and relevant policies according to the need of time. These should concentrate on the creation of basic infrastructure, reduction of logistic cost, liberal and facilitated environment, promotion of quality standards of production for competitiveness, sufficient investments in Research & Development, and doing of business ease to increase investors’ confidence in the Indian economy. In this context, the role of policymakers is certainly very crucial to frame such policies and implement them to reap the full benefits of globalization.

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