Since India is the biggest producers of milk globally percentage share being 24% of total global milk production, dairying activity over here are of utmost importance. India's production during 2021-22 of total milk has been 221.06 millions tonnes with registering a growth of 5.29% during the year in comparison to previous years. The overall growth since 2013-14 has been registered as 61% during the period of last nine years as milk production during 2013-14 was registered only 137.7 million tonnes and thus per capita milk availability in India has become 444 gms/ day which is approximately 1.5 times to that of per capita availability of 303 gms/day in the year 2013-14 (Ministry of infor. & Bro. 01 June 2023 PIB) In between the state of our country Rajasthan rank 1st  with 15.05% contribution  followed by U.P. with 14.93 % contribution.(Basic AH Stat. 2022) If we go for breed wise contribution in the production buffaloes have contributed 31.29% followed by the contribution of crossbred cow's the percentage being 29. Average yield during the year 2021-22 was computed as 8.52 kg per milk animal for the species of  crossbred Cows, 3.36 kg for local cow's and 5.96 kg for buffaloes.(Live stock prod. Stat. 2022)

Keeping in view the above colossal date this study was performed to analysis the phenomenon in case of western U.P.  regarding dairying activities for the exercise and at data collection of Moradabad district of western up was selected primary data were collected from 240 households as given in detail as methodology. The data wire subjected to analysis from various angles break-even point level production and computation of margin of safety category wise as well as species wise being the one of the prime objective of this study. Extensive statistical work was accomplished over the data and the findings as well as inferences are being given here in details  so that potential investors make- up  their  mind in respect of selection of species, holding size/ herd size  and total cost etc and are able to apprise themselves with the viability of any unit on the basis of break-even production level and margin of safety percentage as well.

References with resembling studies.

(A) Yield per day per milch animal

Kumari et al. (2020) - In respect of western region of India there inferences regarding yield was that average yield for crossbred cow’s 13:15 litre, local cows 1.65 litre and buffaloes 6.21 litre for all the Categories Combined.

Another  study conducted by Agrawal and Raju (2021) revealed with the inference that yield per animal per day was 2.83 litre for local cows, 5.55 litre for buffaloes and 7.17 litre for crossbred cow’s for all the farmers categories combined.

Kaur and Singh (2022) Conducted study in respected of local cow’s in Punjab and inferred that trend of the yield per milch animal per day reflected rising  trend up to the category of small farmers and then it was virtually constant.

Lakshmi Priya et al (2022) – The study revealed the rising trend in average milk production per animal  per day for the species of local cows with the advancement of category of farmers in south India.

Singh and Ram et al. (1998) Productivity level of various breeds of cattle quoted the study confirm the rising trend between the categories  with the advancement of holding size in respect of buffaloes, crossbred cow’s and local cow’s. The range being form 3.59 to 4.39, 5.29 to 7.22 and 2.76 to 3.11 litres per animal per day for buffaloes crossbred cow’s and local cow’s respectively.

Kumar and Gupta (1988) – Productivity level of different breeds,  the inference drawn was 4.98 litre, 3.74 litre and 7.27 litre for buffaloes, local cow’s and Crossbred cow’s respectively with trend of increase with the size of land holding's,

(B) Cost Components

Lakhmipriya et al. (2022) The total variable cost for buffaloes  was 139.95 for   local cow’s,  it was Rs. 122.24 and for Crossbred cows, it was 202.80. Fixed cost for buffaloes Rs. 23.87, For local cows Rs. 21.30 and for crossbred cow’s Rs 31.32. Cost of production per lit was Rs. 31.84 for buffaloes Rs 33.13 for local cows and Rs 20.99 for crossbred cows all the categories combined with decreasing  trend  with the advancement of holding size.

Kumari  et al.(2020) - The study inferred total variable cost for crossbred cow’s per milch animal per day as Rs. 245.08, for local cows it was Rs. 87.25 and for buffalies Rs. 194.85 for all the categories combined, fixed cost was Rs. 37.80 for crossbred cows,  Rs. 17.83 for local cows and Rs 29.08 for buffaloes.

(C) BEP level of production

Pandet  Manik Chandra (2002) -  Conduct a study in Deoghar  district of Jharkhand it was observed that keeping in view the Break-even output dairy enterprise with crossbred cow’s and buffaloes were profitable in the study area. The output for species of crossbred cow's was found to be highest.

Bose, A. and Surya Prakash, R. (2021).  Conducted a study on the basis of standard lactation period for the species cow’s and buffaloes  and inferred through  the margin of safety as 82.09% for cow’s  and 80.06% for buffaloes. BEP output for both the species in the same table is a quoted as 17.98 % and 19.93% for Cow's & buffaloes respectively.

Chandra. A et. al (2014) - Conduct a study in respect of the species of cow’s, and buffaloes for members and nonmembers in district Etawaha of U.P. for analysis of cost of milk production  and BEP-analysis on the Categories basis they inferred that the milk yield per milch buffaloes pre lactation was higher than its break even output to cover the cost in both sectors. The same inference was for the species of cow’s also. The maximum break-even point in litre being 349.65 for buffaloes and 116.18 for cow’s per lactation.

Singh et al (2013)- A study was concluded by the researcher in respect of species-wise yield and break-even point analysis for milch  cow’s and  milch buffaloes for sultanpur distract of U.P. The Inferences drawn were that breakeven level production in litres for cow’s was 396.69 litre/1.49 litre per lactations/ per day for buffaloes the corresponding figure were 564. 69/1.88 litres per lactation / per day. Percentage of break-even output was registered as 28.93%, for local cow’s and 41.18%, for buffaloes for pool of the all the Categories. The yield in case of cows range from 3.65 litre to 7.97 litre per milch animal per day and for buffaloes it was 3.24 litre to 6.33 litre per milch animal per day.

Cost per liter was ascertained as Rs. 21.15  per litre, Rs. 60.94  per litre and Rs.35.24 per litre for croess bred cow’s local cow’s and buffaloes respectively.

Agrawal & Raju (2021) Total variable cost for buffaloes was Rs. 164.91, for local cow’s it was Rs.83.84 and for crossbred cows, it was Rs. 176.36. Total fixed cost was Rs. 22.48 for buffaloes, Rs 9.87 for local cows and Rs 17.99 for crossbred  cows per animal per day. The cost of milk production was Rs. 31.85 per litre for buffaloes, Rs 30.74 for local cows and Rs 25.94 for crossbred cows.

Singh and Ali (2017)- The study inferred total variable cost for buffaloes as Rs 156.52 for crossbred cows. Rs 144.16 and Rs 83.54 for local cows. Total fixed cost for buffaloes was ascertained Rs 21.64 for buffaloes, Rs 24.27 for crossbred cows and Rs 20.63 for local cows for all the categories combined. The cost of production per litre was computed Rs 31.88 for buffaloes, Rs 23.71 for crossbred cow’s and Rs 28.32 for local cows.

Primary data was collected from 240 milk producing households from the different villages of Moradabad district of western U.P. Covering all the tehsils and all the blocks. From the selected villages race respondent were selected  in equal number that is120 each from PCDF sector (co-operative) and non. PCDF sector (Non- co-operative). The categories were assigned on the basis of the holding of the respondents under sample as under

The data so Collected was plotted in the table to compute the variable cost and fixed cost per milch animal per day. After the Cost Computation the same were divided with the yield and thus per litre cost. Variable as well as fixed was analysis and contribution and margin of safety were computed on that basis. The cost components were included as under.

Variable Cost - Actual Cost of feeding, human labour, veterinary & miscellaneous were clubbed under this head. Green fodder, dry fodder and concentrates were the component of feeding cost. While family labour and hired labour comprised human labour cost. The weight assigned for one conversion of female/child labour into man equivalent were as under

2 Males = 3 Females

1 Male = 1.5  Females

1 Male =  2 children

Thus the total labour employed to perform all the operations was Computed on the basis of Standard Adult Units (SAU's) for all the breeds with conversion coefficient used for formulation of suggested by Singh (1984) as under

Buffalo in milk = 1.0

Buffalo dry = 0.4

Local Cow in milk =  0.7

Local Cow dry = 0.3

Crossbred Cow in milk = 1.4

Crossbred Cow dry =1.0

Heifer = 0.5

Young stock (Male & Female ) = 0.2

Drought dairy animal = 0.5

Veterinary cost included actual cost natural services, artificial insemination, vaccination health’s medicines etc.

Miscellaneous  cost comprised of electricity & water bills, minor repair  Cost for the cattle shed and equipments as well and expenditure aver ropes, chains, pails, grazing charges, detergent etc.

Fixed Cost -  Depreciation & Cattle shed at the rate of 2.5 percent per annum for Pucca shed 5 percent per annum for   semi- pucca shed  and 20 percent for kaccha shed were included under this head.

Depreciation on dairy equipments was computed on flat rate of 10% per annum including chaff cutter water troughs, Milking can and other Utensils and implements etc. Interest on Capital invested be it arranged and borrowed for the building of Cattle shed, buying equipments and animals was computed at an average prevailing bank rate of 10% per annum. Thus total gross cost was computed clubbing all the components of variable cost and fixed cost and then actual return from the disposal of dung and empty gunny bags was deducted from gross Cost and thus we reached net Cost.

For Computing BEP level production, the following formula was applied as adopted by Sangu (1995) and Siwach et al (1992)

Break-even level of milk Production (in litres) = T.F.C/ A.P. – A.V.C

Where

TFC =  Total Fixed cost per animal  (Rs. per day)

AP = Average price (Rs. per lit)

 A.V.C = Average variable cost (Rs. per litre)

 On the basis of above margin of safety figures  for all the three species were computed category-use and then viability and other inferences were drawn.

Yield - For the species of buffaloes, the average yield per milch animal per day was registered as 5.41 litre while category-wise figure were observed as 4.24 litre, 4.54 litre, 5.31 litre, 6.15 litre, and 7.15 litre for all the five categories respectively. Corresponding figures for the species local cows were 3.45 litre per milch per day for the pool and 2.92 litre, 3.01 litree, 3.37 litre, 3.50 litre and 4.16 litre for all the five categories . For the species of crossbred cow's the average yield was 8.58 litre for the pool and 7.44 litre, 7.16 litre, 7.48 litre, 9.79 litre and 11.00 lite for all the five categories respectively. The trend clearly shows for all the three species that the yield increases with the size of the holding. In other words it has a positive correlation with herd size for the species of crossbred cow’s,  the  category marginal farmer was the only exception contrary to this inference in respect of the yield as yield in the category of marginal farmers 7.16 litre while in case of landless labour i.e, first Category it was 7.44 litre. The overall cost computed as above were subjected to the division with yield for all the species and all the categories and thus we reached cost of production per litre the figures were 37.80 for buffaloes, Rs 42.00 for local cow’s and Rs 27.79 for crossbred cow’s for the pool. The gross return was then computed on prevalent market rate per litre and then BEP litre for all the spices and categories were computed keeping in view the total variable cost or say margin of safety after deducting it.

Breakeven production

For the species of the buffaloes, break-even production level was computed as 1.28 litre for all the five Categories per milch animal  per day. Category- wise BEP Production level in litre was computed as 1.40, 1.56, 1.06, 1.11 and 1.12 for all th five categories respectively. For the species of local cow’s,  the BEP Production level was computed as 1.47 litre per milch animal per day and the categorised figures were 1.54, 2.07, 1.86, 1.29 and 1.03 litre respectively for all the five categories. In case of crossbred cow's BEP Production level was computed as 1.24 litre per milch animal per day with corresponding figures for Categories being 1.18, 1.45, 1.38, 1.15 and 1.02 litre for all the five Categories respectively.

The margin of safety percentage equivalent  thus was computed for the species of buffaloes as 76.34% for the pool with categories was percentage as 66.98, 65.64, 80.04, 81.95 and 84.64 respectively for all the five categories respectively. For the species of local cows the margin for safety percentage for the pool of all the categories was computed as 57.39% with categories figures as 47.26%, 31.23%, 44.81%, 63.14% and 75.24% for all the five Categories respectively.  For the species of crossbred cow’s the margin of safety percentage was computed as 85.55% for the pool while categories-wise figures were 84.14%, 79.75%, 81.55%, 88.25% and 90.73% for all the five categories respectively.

Analysis of trend in the figures of BEP level production and margin of safety percentage revealed that Brek even Production level clearly trends to decrease with the advancement of holding size, In other words it has a negative correlation on the basis of size of the herds. In figures it is negative but for the shake of survival  implication of course is positive. On the contrary the figures of margin of safety percentage trends to rise with the size of holding. The inference drawn is that margin of safety increases directly and drastically as well with the advancement of Categories or holding size. The range of margin of safety for the species of buffaloes is from 65.64% to 84.34%, for the species of local cows the range is from 31.23% to 75,24%, for the species of crossbred cows the range  is from 79.75% to 90.73%.

The category of marginal farmers is an exception in case of all the three species as slight down fall in margin of safety percentage was registered for this Category in compression to the first category.

Keeping in view all the component variable cost the same was calculated as Rs. 172.48 for buffaloes Rs 124.04 for local cow's and P, 206.78 for crossbred cows per milch animal per day. Fixed Cost was calculated as Rs, 42.00 for buffaloes, Rs. 28.28 for local cow’s and Rs.40.39 for cross bred cows per milch animal per day. Thus gross Cost for buffaloes was computed as Rs. 214. 48 for buffaloes, Rs. 152.32 for local cows and R.247.17 for crossbred cow’s per milch animal per day. The Net cost after deduction value of dung and gunny bags was computed as Rs.204.61 for buffaloes, Rs.144.97 for local cows and Rs.240.80 for Crossbred Cow's.

The computation BEP level production and margin of safety percentage thus facilitate to infer that any dairy unit sustain its viability even at 1/5 to 1/4 production level that may be in the condition of inordinate situation of rendering of 65 to 80 percent of the animals dry. Another Inference drawn was that for the species of crossbred cows the margin of safety was quite handsome, the range being from 79.75 % to 90.73% This is enough for the support of the rearing of crossbred cow’s abundantly.

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