ISSN: 2456–4397 RNI No.  UPBIL/2016/68067 VOL.- VI , ISSUE- XI February  - 2022
Anthology The Research
Emerging The New Phenomenon of Balance of Power
Paper Id :  15734   Submission Date :  19/02/2022   Acceptance Date :  19/02/2022   Publication Date :  26/02/2022
This is an open-access research paper/article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
For verification of this paper, please visit on http://www.socialresearchfoundation.com/anthology.php#8
Dinanath Bhatt
Assistant Teacher
Uttar Pradesh Secondary Education
Dayanand Inter College Khorabar Gorakhpur
Gorakhpur,Uttar Pradesh
Abstract With the fall of Soviet Empire it was felt among member states of Soviet Union that happy days will come. The world shown to them that life of western world was the life of heaven, people save money for one year to buy blue jeans. Such was the craze for western culture and fashion among them. But soon their expectations meet to dust. New rich class emerge at the cost of large scale poverty. An age of great depression and frustration waiting for them. The GDP of Russia in 1998 is less than the GDP of 1989.
Keywords Emerging, Phenomenon, Successor, Economy
Introduction
A. Successor of Late USSR Russia’s Dream to Attain and Rewrite the Old Glorious Era Their say before 1990 in international affair listen with high respect, after collapse has no value. The western powers have broken all the promises made during the fall of Berlin war to Gulf war. Earlier they have promised to dismantle NATO or never make member of Erstwhile Soviet Union but it was broken very soon. Attack on Yugoslavia was another event which damaged the image of Russia. Therefore very soon it was realized among the political class of Russia that it was a great loss for them. But the old days never come again, this sentence is also true in case of Russia. At the new horizon of world affairs it was not easy for Russia to get that stature. But the attempt to get that stature was tried seriously after the access of Vladmir Putin to Russian Presidency. Putin proves a shroude politician. He starts his career or as junior of Boris Yeltsin. (But he was quietly different from his master. After recovering its economy he had attempted seriously to bring Russian image at high levels in the world scenario. Since the western powers under leadership of America has ignore its promise to not expand NATO to the Russian borders. Soon after disintegration of USSR three Baltic state Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia get membership of NATO. They left no chances to humiliate Russia. Russia was well awared with this advancement of NATO. In order to check this advancement of NATO and European Union Russia has form Eurasia Economic Organization (EEO). Its mission is to take former Soviet States at a platform in response to NATO as well as European Union. With the plenty reserve of Petroleum and Natural Gas in fact Russia has made friends in Latin America and China. The truth is that Russia is very much alive to its heritage as a successor to the USSR as well as to Tsarist Russia. It rightly complains of America’s expansionism, unilaterism and interference in its internal affairs. Unless the US addresses Russia’s concern about its security and treats it as an equal power tension between these two powers will persist.[1] There are two basic differences between Russia and USSR. First is the ideology, since USSR governed by communist ideology it has a galaxy of friendly nation who gives and take support based on block not on mere economic benefit. Second is the economy USSR’s economy is large and diversified but Russian economy no doubt an emerging economy but lack diversity. In his new year’s address to the nation when Rubbles highly depreciated against US $ in backdrop of US lead western sanctions after anexation of crimian Peninsula and Ukrainian crisis. In recent months when petroleum products value touches six years low the vulnerability of Russian economy is get exposed. However in some quarters of international politics it is thought that shale production lead downfall was aimed to destroy the economy of US opponents namely Venezuela, Iran, Russia, but due to the deft politics of Putin, America unable to do any substantial help to Ukraine, in other worlds we can say that Putin made America nearly impotent in case of Ukrainian crisis. Iraq war and Afghan war has hurt American image in a big way and during the same period Russia made concrete attempt to attain USSR stature by focusing on improving economy and making geostrategic tie up, by making SCO (Shanghai Co-operation Organization) along with China, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan & Uzbekistan. To counter the US interest in Central Asia it has made substantial progress. Whenever America think to free from Kabul Putin cleverly providing space (Route) to engage US in Afghanistan from taking lesson from past Russia along with China vetos US move on Syria, and failed the armed intervention desire of US and western powers. By selling Arms to Syria, Iran, China and India, Russia not only improving its economy but also making friends in different positions on globe. Being one of the member of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) it has developed a group of highly emerging economies of the world. It helped Russia in rainy days. At the high of Ukrainian crisis BRICS Nations stand with Russia. In the year 2011 when Putin was PM of Russia has said, the government will spend 20 trillion Rubles and by 2020 Russian armed forces will be a totally modernized and will export to the world oil and gas, generating a huge trade surplus for the Russians.[2] He knows well that to be globally effective, the world of nations understand the significance of military power. Hence Russia with a huge reserve of oil and natural gas wealth is out to rearm its Army, Navy and Air Force. As of 70% of Russian exports are made up of oil, gas, mineral exports and the commodities market being a fast fluctuating market, to reduce its dependence on commodities Russia is looking towards arms a traditional field for it, for example Roseboro export and other Russian export agencies are expected to export about 10 billion $ of arms and military equipments in the year 2011.[3] In his brief visit to India, Russia has agreed to built 12 new Nuclear reactors each cost 3 Billion $4 and before the visit of Barak Obama, Russia foreign minister has offered to India fifth-generation fighters (estimated cost $ 25 billion) and multi-role transport aircraft (initial cost $ 60 million). Also pitching its light helicopter for ‘Making in India’. It is well known that India is largest buyer of Russian Arms.[5] Putin well known to his past (since he worked in USSR times as KGB member) when he said on 24th Sep 2011 during his speech at the XII United Russia party congress that he and the then Russian President Moderdev has some proposals with regard to the country’s future power configuration. He said, “We have gathered today to finalize our plans for the future. We are facing enormous challenges: we must build an innovative economy and strengthen democratic institutions. But if we truly want to succeed in our efforts, our focus must always be on the Russian people. Russian families must feel the positive changes in their lives and that is the main goal and meaning of our work. Only then can we count on the support of our people.[6] Russian government has go on increasing as opposed to decreasing the level of social benefits at the time of 2008 economic step down. As a great power or as one of the main power in the international arena, Russia, naturally has envisage multi lateral ties with all continents, with all regions of the world. Russian intent, in recovering or garnering an eminence in Latin America, which is projected in his foreign policy agenda. As Prime Minister Vladmir Putin (who is Prime Minister in Sep 2008) observed that “Latin America is becoming a noticeable link in the chain of the multi-polar world that is forming. We will pay more and more attention to this sector of our economic and foreign policy.”[7] This is actually in response to the US hidden design in supporting as well financing ‘Rose Revolution’ in Georgia and ‘Orange Revolution’ in Ukraine. This response is possible due to Russian’s solid and sustained economic growth during the period 2000-2008 and the corresponding and conceding decline of US power and global prestige, due to the Bush administration’s disastrous policies such as the invasion of Iraq, the degrading and dehumanizing treatment and human rights abuses of detainees of Guantaname, the failure to deal efficaciously and consolatory with either the Iranian or the North Korean Nuclear programme, and attendant Nuclear proliferation concerns and the last but certainly not least, the neglect of sound economic policy that has been perceived as a prime cause of the Global and Economic crisis of 2008 onwards. Russia argues that Latin American States that wish to challenge America need to rely on Moscow President Daniel Orgeg of Nicaragua pledged his country’s vigorous opposition to a ‘Unipolar’ world and cogently welcomed Russian presence in Latin America, as averting of counter valence to that “Unipolarity”, by saying “extreme conditions are being created in Latin America and all the government are welcoming Russia’s presence.”[8] Venezuelean President Hugo Chavez’s recognition, of the independence of South Ossetra and Aldchazia, in line with the views of Russian federation was borne with similar objectives9. Russia has received such support over the financial aid and developmental loans and energy deals and arms sale in the similar fashion its predecessor USSR receiving support. Moscow also using BRICS table for making world multi-polar from unipolar which is predominated since 1990 pushing such effort medvev administration has made sincere effort in developing regional and transcontinental organizations and groupings such as SCO (Shanghai Co-operation Organization), the organization for Security and co-operation in Europe (OSCE), ASEAN Asian Regional Form (ARF), Asian Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC), as also informal concerts such as Russia-India-China (RIC) tricks and BRICS a cornerstone priority for Russia diplomacy and political economic development, so much so on this blocks and grouping should emerge as an essential structural element in a world of genuine multi-polarity.[10] As medvev observed in BRICS summit in Yekaterinburg “The BRICS summit aims to create the conditions for building a fairer world order and to create a favorable environment for resolving global problems. In order to achieve old glorious era, in post Yeltsin Russia under statesmanship of Putin and Medvev both lenders making efforts in the form of developing strategic partnership with China, Vietnam, developing base in Syria, renew the partnership with India. Besides consolidating its ties with central Asian countries in SCO, Russia has been making efforts for extending its influence in Af-Pak region. In Aug 2010 at Sachi summit, Russia institutionalized a permanent body, comprising Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Kazakhstan where it committed to the rebuilding of the industrial and infrastructure project in Afghanistan which former USSR has set up. It also committed two major infrastructure projects on Road and Railway links from Kazakhstan to Pakistan across east of Afghanistan and export of electricity from Kirgizstan and Kazakhstan to Pakistan and Afghanistan11. In this way we are looking that Russia is trying hard to achieve old glorious era of USSR. But the Task is not easy. A lot of permutation and combinations running in international politics despite all its efforts Ukraine is going to become member of EU and NATO. Georgia is no longer obeying its master and recent fall in petroleum products has worsened its own situations. This is reflected in the annual speech of president Vladmir Putin in 2014 where he focused on diversification of Russian economy. B- Impact of China, India and Russia new Polarization Before 1990 the foreign policy of a country is shaped by the ideology to which the country abides. But in 1991 when Soviet Empire collapsed the other model of social, economic and political un-development challenged. Only one model i.e., neo-liberal democracy seemed to be winner of the race. After this year i.e., 1991 which is most important in human history, a new era of LPG (Liberalization, Privatization and Globalization) starts. From here the economic interest of a country is matter most in shaping its foreign policy. Alliance made from this very point of view that, how the economy will get benefited by it. From 1991 to nearly 2000 AD American hegemony works at will it has crushed every opponents and whosoever come in the way of American dream of Unipolar world. But after accession to power of Putin in Russia a new era has been started. Thanks to boon in oil prices, Putin control the economy of his country and made important changes in its priority. During Yelsin and S. Kiriyenko time Russian foreign policy is Europe and America Centric but Putin has changed this approach and he has planned his foreign policy with keeping in mind the developing nations along with India and China made an informal concert RIC (Russia, India and China), aimed to make the world multi-polar. Since these countries economy is 14460.46 Billion $, Area 29.40Sq Km and having high economic growth respectively has ability to shape the global economy. But their polarization gets new height when they along with Brazil formed BIRC in 2006. Later South Africa joined the group and group named BRICS. BRICS nations possess 30 to 60% of the world’s most important mineral resources and boast the biggest most combined market of 2.9 billion people. This is the most important group of modern time which has registered fourfold growth in their combined GDP in past decade to stand at 21% of total global output. Since it is a multi-civilization Union it has ability to shape the path of mankind’s future development. They have ability to change the course of International Relations (IR). We have seen this at the time of Ukrainian crisis BRICS nations have not ratified the western (EU and American) sanction against Russia. In fact India has enforced the Russian in Ukraine and Russia and China has vetoed the UN backed (in fact US and EU) resolution on Syria. American strategy backfired in Syria. Therefore this polarization has developed a lot of potential in shaping the IR. It has nearly ended the Unipolar world. In 2010, the breakup of the global GDP for some major regions was something like this – US 20%, EU 21%, China 13%, India 5%. In 2020 the figures are expected to be US 16%, EU 15%, China 19% and India 9%.[12] It means China would exceed US and EU separately and the combined GDP of India and China be almost on par with the combined GDP of US and EU. By combining Russian economy India and China will far exceed EU and US. In fact this BRICS group covers 39,739,375 Sq Km Area of Earth planet. Their combined population is 43% approx 3 billion. Their contribution to global GDP is 25% total values of their economy is 28% of global economic values. Their position in global trade is 18%. They (BRICS) contribute approximately 45% to global economy. They attract 53% of total global finance with these important economic features, some economist call them G-5 (like G-7). Their mutual understanding increased day by day. Year 2008 is celebrated in India as year of Russia in India and 2009 is celebrated in Russia as year of India in Russia. However after 1991, America is in priority for Indian think tank on foreign policy affairs, for Russian, China is in priority list. But mutually India and Russia also developing good chemistry to increase their trade level similarly India and China’s mutual trade is reaching new heights despite heavily tilted in favor of China. Russia and China’s mutual trade is increasing many folds. But the weakening of American economy and Russia, China and India polarization, India has been benefited most. Since, independence India has followed a policy of non-alignment (NAM) but from time to time serving American to USSR camp. But from 1998 after Pokhran Blast and western sanction a new dynamic changes in US approach starts from the Clinton second Presidential period Indo-US relation is changed from detachment to affralition. It has prepared a background for further growth in Indo-US relations. It is very pertinent here to say that from 1991 at the end of cold war the concept of new world order as proposed by Bush senior never materialized on ground. American hegemony has been challenged in G-7 by Japan and Germany as their economy in some spheres out mastered US but up to large extent US hegemony works well. The RIC (Russia, India and China) polarization has made US panic to favor India in its larger interest. But as the Indian economy registered double digit growth it become more important for global powers. As we has seen that Barak Obama become Chief Guest of Republic Day 2015. He has made several agreements and provides concessions to India and India has also made concessions to make progress on Nuclear deal but most important feature is the silence of Modi during criticize of Russia on Ukraine embregalio by Barak Obama. As Obama back to US via Saudi Arabia India has sent its foreign minister to China, where India foreign minister Sushma Swaraj attended 13th foreign ministers meeting of RIC countries. It means that however the goodwill gesture played by US, India is not intended to become its allies at the cost of China and Russia. It means Indian foreign policy is reached at the stage where it shows its own space. It try to play role in shaping the IR in Indian Ocean Region and dream to become an important players at International stage C- India’s Heightening Political Stature In The World Politics And Single Power USA Anxiety To Maintain Herself:- Before 1990 when world is by and large bipolar India’s foundation of foreign policy is moralistic. It adopts moral approach in world matters. As a founding member of NAM, it keeps equidistance from both the Powers. But after demise of Soviet Empire and economic problem of 1991, it shifted its approach in favor of sole poser USA. Since India adopted liberalization, privatization and globalization (LPG) to overcome economic situation, it is pertinent for it to make good relation with USA. At the same time USA has also shown good gesture towards India. But mindset change takes time, both the countries trying to come close to each other. Pokhran Blast and 9/11 incident are two milestone in their relation. After Pokhran Blast US has imposed sanctions on space exploration and nuclear technology. Its allies also took strong action against India. But Indian economy during the period shown high level growth. Its manpower, cheap labor, vast market has attracted the unipolar boss America. Sanctions were removed due to pressure of its MNCs and unilateral declaration by Indian government to not first and also neveruse against who do not possess nuclear weapons and declare peaceful purposes use of nuclear technology. The 9/11 incident has changed the approach of USA towards India. For the first time US is experiencing the terror attack which India for long time victim of state sponsored terrorism it was said that the US president has threatened Pakistan to either co-operate with US to punish Taliban regime in Afghanistan or it will be sent to pre-stonic age from here US need a strategic partner in South Asia. Due to its position in Indian Ocean and military strength, India is better suit for US to contain China and check terrorism. Since Soviet Block is not in existence the US assumption of Indian learning towards USSR get away, it started co-operation with India. Therefore the real breakthrough came in second regime of Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has converted the disintenched relationship to engaged relationship. Since the new India has embraced liberalization, it is for cry from India of Nehru. Much water flown down in Ganga from 1991 when India has started to travel in LPG era to 2001. But the relationship gets momentum when George Bush junior takes charge. He really understands the merit new India possessed eg. Its size, its economic interdependence with US, its political stability, its democratic form of government, its geographical placement and most importantly its height against shrewed China’s game of expansion.[13] India has shown its diplomatic capabilities in many areas. In recently held general elections in Sri Lanka and ouster of Mahendra Rajpaksha, is seen in international circle as the handling of it in best fashion. Mahendra who was very close to China and almost part of Chinese plane of ring of pearls against India. But his ouster has nearly failed the Chinese plan. In this context when America is worried about China’s aggressive attitude, India played vital role in American game of Asian Pivot. Hence if both the world’s biggest and largest democracies are coming closer, then it is the need of hour for both of them. It is in the interest of the both. In case of Afghanistan India has played a very key role in its reconstruction, India has made a huge investment in Afghanistan. It is working in collaboration not in part of American coalition of NATO forces. Earlier India was the voice of NAM it raises the issue of vital importance of third world countries. But its recent inclination towards America and Israel has decreased its international image, however from time to time it raises the voice but not with that force. India’s Vote in favor of US against Iran at IAEA is an withdrawing from earlier stand by India. Similarly Indian Stand to remain neutral in case of Syria is another example of silent support to US and great departure from earlier stand. In recent past we have many example of succumbing to US pressure. The recent IMF study shown that India is going ahead Chinese growth rate. Since in this era of LPG (Liberalization, Privatization and Globalization) everything is measured by economic growth, trade, Indian position is heightened no doubt. If US showing great interest, then it is not without reason. India become the largest buyer of its arms, India’s largest trade partner is US now many a thing is in favor of developing good relationship between US and India.
Aim of study The aim of this paper Emerging The New Phenomenon of Balance of Power.
Review of Literature
In South Asia India’s military strength, its geographical size made it USA’s strategic partner. However every leader who dream to shape the worlds politics trying to make India its Alliance partner. China has great interest in India. Its Prime Minister and foreign minister visited India. During the visit of Indian foreign minister Sushma Swaraj China has offered membership for Shanghai’s co-operation organization. An organization which has been created by Russia and China in response to NATO. Pakistan has opposed the security council membership’s claim of India but China has nothing said at this issue.
Conclusion In South Asia India’s military strength, its geographical size made it USA’s strategic partner. However every leader who dream to shape the worlds politics trying to make India its Alliance partner. China has great interest in India. Its Prime Minister and foreign minister visited India. During the visit of Indian foreign minister Sushma Swaraj China has offered membership for Shanghai’s co-operation organization. An organization which has been created by Russia and China in response to NATO. Pakistan has opposed the security council membership’s claim of India but China has nothing said at this issue.
References
1. Brezinski: America and Crisis of Global Power, Frontline Sep-20, 2013, P-90 2. Editorial World Focus, Oct-2011, P-625 3. ibid 4. The Hindu, 12th Dec, 2014 5. Times of India, Jan-21, 2015, P-12 6. Editorial World Focus, Oct-2011, P-625 7. Stephen Blank ‘Mediterranean Security into the coming millennium. US Army college 1999, P-447-467 8. Russian Foreign Policy: Sources and Implications RAND Institute, US 2009, as quoted in World Focus Oct-2011, P-711 9. Ibid 10. World Focus, Oct-2011, P-71 11. World Focus, Oct-2011, P-650 12. http://thebrickspost.com 13. Sheriff Shuja, International Journal on World Peace Vol. XXIII, No.2, June-2006 14. Frontline, Feb-2015, P-6