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Talibans Takeover of Afghanistan: Assessing India’s Strategies | |||||||
Paper Id :
16347 Submission Date :
2022-08-14 Acceptance Date :
2022-08-21 Publication Date :
2022-08-25
This is an open-access research paper/article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. For verification of this paper, please visit on
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Abstract |
Since U.S. combat forces have left Afghanistan that has changed the security situation in that country. The power balance is likely to shift in favor of Taliban’s ambit which can lead to the outbreak of a more volatile situation in that country, concerns the regional powers who can receive the spillover effect of such a situation. Under such backdrop, India who has showed its rise of soft power influence within that country since 2001 by investing about 3 billion USD for strategic infrastructure and capacity building projects has to reassess its strategies after the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan-the group that India considers illegitimate. In this ongoing paper an attempt has been made to assess the India’s strategies after Taliban took hold of Afghan affairs. It also brings forth the role that India can play in order to restore peace in Afghanistan and also secure its developmental projects in order to stay engaged with that country. The paper also impinges on the challenges that India is facing after the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan. Finally the paper provides a brief description about the options that India can avail so as to create a conducive environment that can work in favor of both Afghans and for itself as well.
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Keywords | Talibans Takeover, Afghanistan, Powers, Decades. | ||||||
Introduction |
Decades of military intervention of US in Afghanistan failed to establish its ambition of liberal democratic institutions successfully. Not only this, it could not check the Taliban’s control of Afghanistan for establishing a social order that could free Afghanistan from falling prey into the hands of corrupted leaders backed by their allies. The Taliban aspires to build a social order that could be placed on Islamic traditions and practices that they believe are misused by the corrupted leaders of Afghanistan.[1] The Taliban’s seizure of Kabul came to the place on August 15, 2021, that led to their strong foothold over the country. It came in the response as US was completing its military mission that it concluded in the February 2020 in U.S.-Taliban accord. Finally, it was on August 30, 2021, when U.S. military and diplomatic presence in Afghanistan came to an end after the departure of U.S. combats from Afghanistan that changed the security situation in the country[2] India’s former security adviser M.K. Narayanan while opining on the changing security situation in Afghanistan writes, “Due to its geographical positioning and influence on regional stability, the political future of Afghanistan will be of considerable significance to several nations with competing sets of interests as well as to pan-Asian relations as a whole.”. Thus, the neighboring countries along with India will receive the security implications that can emanate from the Afghanistan after the Taliban resurgence. India considers the importance of peaceful, stable and prosperous Afghanistan favorable for security in Kashmir and a prerequisite to the protection of its ongoing developmental projects in the country[3] as well as to its ambition of emerging out as a regional leader along with its power projection as a major global power.[4] Against this backdrop, the India’s active engagement with Afghanistan since from 9/11 through the developmental initiatives has raised some of the pertinent questions. Can India’s economic engagement sustain keeping in view Taliban takeover of Afghanistan? What political strategy is maneuvered by India after Taliban resurgence? How India is going to balance its interests in Afghanistan amidst of the presence of the Pakistan. Such questions are being answered in this research paper. The paper impinges on Taliban resurgence and its impact on India, and relies on the material from both primary and secondary sources. [5]
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Objective of study | 1. To examine the India’s strategies keeping in view US Exit strategy and Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan.
2. To examine the challenges that India is facing in dealing with Taliban led Afghanistan.
3. To find out the policy options that India can avail in order make a regional solution possible for Afghan conundrum secure its development projects and stay engaged there. |
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Review of Literature | The available literature on Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan- Assessing India’s strategies is limited and in the form of newspaper articles. Also, most of the India-Afghanistan relations are analyzed while keeping in view the Pakistan factor. Candidate has provided a description of following two books regarding India’s strategies in Afghanistan. Avinashi Paliwal, (2017) My Enemy’s Enemy. The book provides a description about how India as a global rising power engages itself in South Asia in general and with Afghanistan in particular right from the Soviet invasion and up to the ongoing US withdrawal. Central to the debate is the containment of Pakistan, the country, which is believed as a key factor behind India’s Afghan policy. The author also gives an account of description about the Afghanistan’s internal dynamics that is the central reason to its conflict. The book also brings forth reveals the debate on Taliban Dilemma that existed between Partisans and Conciliators within the policy corridors of India. The Conciliators who were in favour of ‘Engage with all’ dictum, reflecting their pragmatic stance in reaching to Pakistan for Afghan conundrum. While on the other hand, Partisans approach was against it, reflecting the containment of Pakistan. Along with it, the book focuses on changing strategies of India towards Afghanistan, keeping in view, the Soviet invasion, years of Taliban regime and ongoing US withdrawal. However, the book does not provide a detailed description on India’s policy reformulations, keeping in view the changing security scenario in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal from the country.Harsh V Pant, “India’s Changing Afghanistan Policy: Regional and Global Implication,” in India in Africa and Afghanistan ed. Cameron Buzatto. The work signifies the reassessment of policies by the regional players who find their stakes in Afghanistan including India, keeping in view, the changes that have taken place in the western strategy towards Afghanistan. Central argument of the work reflects that India’s policy towards Afghanistan has remained in a changing trajectory since 2001. In addition to it, the work provides an insight how New Delhi has responded to a strategic environment that is shaped by the involvement of other actors in the region. What is more, the book takes a note of the fact that ISAF is preparing to leave the country and is in the middle of a pull out which evokes a concern in India to preserve its interests in Afghanistan. However, the book falls short of the policy options that India should take if the regional solution to the Afghan problem fails. Such a gap is addressed by the ongoing study which attempts to provide a description about the policy options that should be carried by India in Afghanistan after US draw down. |
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Main Text |
Brief Background: India’s engagement with Afghanistan Both India and Afghanistan are sharing historical and cultural bonds dating back at least to the Indus Valley civilization. Such ties were institutionalized by the signing of a Treaty of Peace and Friendship in 1951.[6]After the withdrawal of Soviets from the country in 1989, the region was held in a state of civil war that went on in between different Mujahideen factions who wanted to gain the power position. India’s support at that time went in favor of Northern Alliance along with Russia and Iran against the strong foothold and advances of Taliban. So, India’s involvement in Afghanistan from the period of 1996-2001 remained covert for the reason Afghanistan was held in the clutches of Taliban rule which India views as antithetical to its domestic security.[7] However, India remained rigorously active in Afghanistan in the aftermath of 9/11 through its soft and smart power initiatives which were clearly manifested in the ‘Strategic Partnership Agreement’[8] that both India and Afghanistan signed in 2011 backed by the US pressure on India. What is worth to mention here, Pakistan was used as a frontline state by the US in its ‘Global War on Terror’; due to which Pakistan time and again gained a strategic leverage in the multiple negotiations with the Taliban to end the war in Afghanistan.[9] India’s active engagement in the country in the meantime was also driven by the India’s striking capabilities in terms of political, economic and military dimensions. Afghanistan provided a space for this aspiring global power to enhance its security parameters and increase its sphere of influence over external environment. Calculating India’s course of relations since 9/11 one founds a changing trajectory that divides the said course of relations into three distinct phases.[10]In the phase first, India extended aid-receptive programmes to Afghanistan for institution building, capacity creation, and infrastructure development in reference to social, education and government sector projects for that India invested USD 2billion. Therefore, it can be said that India engaged itself with Afghanistan through soft power initiatives that generated goodwill among Afghan people for India and helped her to develop a state identity and strategic narratives as a rising global power.[11]In the phase second, power equation shifted in the hands of Pakistan and its allies and New Delhi stood marginalized. Thus, India faced a risky track at this juncture, this was the outcome, when west got diverted by its war in Iraq and had to withdraw some of its forces from Afghanistan. This paved a way to Taliban in claiming the strategic space back that it was enjoying earlier.[12] In Phase third a historic pact called-The Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) was signed between the two countries on October 2011. Such a development signifies that India had to rethink over its engagement with Afghanistan keeping in view the changing security scenario in that country because of U.S. announcement of troops draw-down by 2014. The signing of 2011 Strategic Agreement is counted as a great shift in India’s policy attitude towards Afghanistan as it released India on having restraint on security matters and on holding the exclusive focus on development to a greater security engagement. Such an engagement reflects the fact that India lifted its focus from soft power and shifted it to Smart power initiatives in that country. Therefore, it can be said that SPA has played a critical role in shaping Afghanistan’s future in coordination with India and this pact reflects the increased India-Afghanistan bilateral relations from 2011-2014 and from 2014-2017, keeping in view the exit strategy of US from the country. The former is marked by the formalization of Strategic Partnership Agreement and latter by the continuation of the said pact.[13] Drawdown of US troops from Afghanistan and Establishment of Taliban’s office in Qatar Obama administration’s announcement of troops
draw-down from Afghanistan by 2014 raised the concerns among the countries of
the region including India. Such a decision was likely to change the security
situation in Afghanistan and the regions adjacent.[14] Surrounded
with the top military leaders at the White House, Obama declared that the
security situation in Afghanistan is “precarious” and the presence of Taliban
in Afghanistan he says is a threat. He affirms the fact that he was committed
against any group that will put Afghanistan into violence and will use it “as a
safe haven for terrorists to attack our nation again.” Furthermore He declared
that “It is in our national security interest-especially after all the blood
and treasure we’ve invested in Afghanistan over years-that we give our Afghan
partners the very best opportunity to succeed.”However, the president affirmed
for the greater focus on “training and advising” Afghan security forces in
order to gain their momentum in counterterrorism operations against the left
behind of the terrorist organization like al-Qaida that US believes has
attacked it on September 11.[15] It
was in the meantime that Taliban established its office in, Doha Qatar, in
order to hold the peace talks with the parties to end the Afghanistan conflict.
The Taliban spokesperson Mohammad Naeem declared that one of the main aims of
this decision was to “meet Afghans”. The main parties to the peace process are
the Government of Afghanistan along with its High Peace Council that was
established in 2010 with the intent to look for Taliban and to join them in
peace process with U.S. In the process of this peace deal Pakistan is
considered to play an important role as it acts as a mediator between the
Afghanistan government and Taliban.[16] Peace agreement between
U.S. and Taliban: India’s Stand It was in February 29, 2020 that a peace deal
was signed between the U.S. and Taliban after the months of negotiations in
Doha, Qatar that guarantees the full withdrawal of U.S. troops from the
Afghanistan however based on certain conditions that provides a possibility for
America to end its eighteen years of war from there. The
“Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan” brings with it
certain commitments on the Intra-Afghan dialogue, “a permanent and
comprehensive ceasefire”, Counterterrorism and troop’s level. However, it has
been said by Pompeo who is United States secretary of the state that “Theirs is
a great deal of hard work ahead on the diplomatic front.” The agreement
signifies that the Taliban “will start intra-Afghan negotiations with Afghan
sides on March 10, 2020,” in Oslo, Norway. Meanwhile, it is observed that India did not extend its
support to U.S. in finalizing the agreement with the Taliban and did not
recognize its stand for legitimizing the group as a political actor.[17] India
perceives the group as pro-Pakistan, although a state of stress is being
noticed in the Pakistan-Taliban relations. Not only this, India also shows
tolerance to other militant groups operating in Afghanistan whom India
recognizes hostile to its interests. As a result, India took its side with
Kabul government and did not participate in the U.S-Taliban peace talks even
though receiving requests from former President Hamid Karzai. So, India seems
interested in favor of an Afghan government that should be inclusive and
pluralistic.[18] Taliban back for
second time: How India is responding As
Kabul felled again in the hands of Taliban on 15 August 2021 and has completed
its six months in power on February 15, 2022. The situation in Afghanistan is
time and again worse under the shadows of Taliban. None of the countries around
globe has provided recognition to this regime including Pakistan who has
withheld his stand officially. India being concerned about its national
security has not provided any positive signal for recognizing Taliban rule.
However, it is being noticed that New Delhi has added some sort of flexibility
in its approach towards Taliban as is evident from the fact that India has
showed its presence in several negotiations that were going on in between
Taliban and US over peace deal with the intent to address its security concerns
that are going to emanate from Afghan soil, and is committed to its all time
stand of continuing people-to-people exchanges. Therefore, it did not lag
behind in providing emergency humanitarian assistance to the nation.[19]It was also observed
that the country stood cooperative to
the Afghan refugees particularly with the Hindu and Sikh minorities as New
Delhi’s MEA has asserted that it will facilitate the said communities in
Afghanistan, however would such a stand welcome all the Afghans is yet
undecided.[20] Earlier
stated by Taneja that India’s responses to the changing power matrix in
Afghanistan resembles to the strategy that it adopted when Taliban gained its
power in 1996 up to 2001. At that time, India along with other nations like
Iran chooses to extend its support in favor of Northern Alliance. Once again,
India’s engagement with the persona from the said coalition and others that
sideline themselves from Taliban seems appearing on the ground.[21]Not only this, India mobilized the Afghanistan’s western
neighbors, who together share the common concern that Taliban should be
motivated not to support the terrorist organizations in its neighborhood. Along
with it, India remained active in the resolutions backed by it in UN Security
Council for ensuring that government in Kabul led by Taliban should not be
provided with the membership of UN, keeping in view the Taliban’s support to
some terrorist organizations. In addition to it, India also mobilized the
Central Asian Republics along with Iran and Russia to work out a strategy for
the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan. Such an imitative is evident from the fact
when the said countries together attended a meeting in pursuit of this common
cause and to motivate the Taliban for the establishment of more inclusive form
of government in the country. Furthermore, the safeguard to the human rights of
the ethnic minorities along with the women were also discussed in the agenda of
the meeting. Parthsarthy analyses that in such a volatile situation, India has
joined itself with the international community to endorse a two-track approach
in which primary attention is given to the sufferings of common people. Therefore,
India has supplied the 50, 000 tons of wheat to Afghanistan across the
Wagah-Attari border along with it, India has also supplied six tons of
medicinal supplies through airlifting.[22] The
Pakistan has this time informed India that it will allow its humanitarian
assistance transportation through its territory on the precondition that only
Afghan trucks will carry it.[23] India has also worked to receive the
recommendations from the several countries on Afghan conundrum, for that matter
it has hosted a regional security dialogue which was held on November, 2021. This
meeting was attended by seven other nations including Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. However, both China and
Pakistan refrained from attending the meeting as China mentioned that it had
scheduling issues while Pakistan blamed India as ‘spoiler of peace’. The first
two dialogues of the meeting were earlier held in Russia and Iran in 2018 and
2019.What is worth to mention here is that India has not invited the present
government in Afghanistan that is led by Taliban as it does not recognize the
group as the legitimate authority. While as the Taliban on the other hand has
extended a note of appreciation for India in carrying out such efforts in
series till now. This meeting signals that India is having a leadership role in
reaching out to the regional solution for Afghan problem and the threats that
are emanating from it. Pant says that such a role played by India is not going
to bring immediate results but will help India to shape the strategic
conversation over the issue in the region and will provide a clear picture
about its priorities. At the end of this dialogue, the participating countries
adopted the ‘Delhi Declaration’.[24] Also,
taking into consideration the views of D’ Souza here who is having an expertise
over Afghan issues suggests that India has to adopt a ‘Pragmatic and astute’
policy for its engagement with Taliban so as to secure a conducive environment
for its ongoing aid and development programmes for the Afghans so that it can
avoid the humanitarian crisis within that country.[25] India’s challenges for
now Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan is
going to change the geo-political dynamics in the region. The security threats
that can emanate from Afghanistan’s current situation and their spillover
effect to the countries like China, Russia, and India along with CAR’ is the
common concern that these nations share. However, the countries on their
individual front are looking to shift the changing dynamics in Afghanistan into
their favor. In such a changing security scenario, Afghanistan-Pakistan-China
axis is also going to create a policy coordination that could be antithetical
to the India. China has its economic stakes in
Afghanistan and will look for its projects to get done. It is more concerned
about its transnational Belt and Road Initiative-the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC) that it does not want to get affected by the Taliban insurgents and
wants Afghanistan to be included in
the same project.[26]Pakistan
also stays desirous for the successful operationalisation of this project and
seems interested to make itself the part of such connectivity so as to fulfill
the geo-economic dreams to get done the prospectus of ‘New Great Game’ in
Afghanistan. Moreover, China has provided positive signals to Taliban for
conducting business with them. It wants Taliban not to provide a support to the
insurgents that are operating in its Uyghur valley of Xinjiang province. Both
China and Taliban seem reciprocating to each other by their responses, as is
evident from the statement of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar who is Afghanistan’s
new first deputy prime minister confirming China a “trustworthy friend”. On the
other end, Pakistan is maneuvering its strategies in Afghanistan that seem more
or less against to Indian interests. It is Pakistan through which US channeled
its funding for the creation of Taliban against the Soviets during 1996. M.K.
Narayanan opines that Pakistan has emerged as ‘patron saint’ of new Taliban
government in Afghanistan. He further reiterates that Islamabad along with
Beijing and Moscow are the main supporters of Taliban regime. Meanwhile,
it is being analyzed that Russia also wants to increase its influence in the
region thus is found to be the supporter of China-Pak axis against the US
influence in the area. However it has not provided recognition to present
Taliban regime due to her concern that the insurgents could infiltrate in the
surrounding countries of Russia that will trigger the chances of terrorism.
Therefore, any closeness between China and Pakistan along with Afghanistan
based on the convergence of their interests creates a concern for India that it
has to balance.[27] Taliban’s preparations
for setting a cabinet and its decision to provide a place to the persons from
the Haqqanis faction who are believed to have their close ties with Pakistan
and are dominated by the ideology of having belief in global jihad has faded the
hopes of many Indians that there could emerge a less fundamentalist Taliban
than that which existed and ruled the Afghanistan in the 1990’s. As is also
reiterated by Kabir Taneja, “It is a massive strategic victory for Pakistan to
have a Taliban administration over which they have quasi-control,” He believes
that it is now great opportunity for Pakistan to maneuver anything that it
wants to have in Afghanistan. So, such a situation creates much challenging
position to India in the coming years.[28]Notwithstanding
the fact, London who was a
former counter-terrorism chief across south and south-west Asia opines that
there are certain issues between Taliban and Pakistan on which both are showing
resistance including the recognition of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Talking about the Afghan population, he further goes on saying that they are
showing resentments about Pakistan’s interference in the internal affairs of
Afghanistan. Some Taliban prisoners in Pakistani Jails that were being arrested
on the recommendations of US are also the ones who are not happy with the
Pakistan. So, Taliban more or less wants to be more independent in their state
affairs and what suits better to them for sharing the power position in
Afghanistan. But what London concludes is that such a situation is not going to
be positive for India as Pakistan was acting as a constraint factor over
Taliban in controlling them from taking any such decision that could prove
detrimental to the collective security of the region. Next to it,
Taliban is believed to have their ties with the Lashkar-i-Toiba and
Jaish-i-Mohammad, the groups that are fighting for Kashmir issue against India
in Kashmir- a Muslim dominated region. Some in India expresses their concern
that Taliban inclination to the Muslim brotherhood may aggravate the ongoing
insurgency in Kashmir. Albeit, the security laws of Indian government for
counter insurgency are much comprehensive. Adding the views of Avinash Paliwal to the ongoing debate, he reflects that Taliban considers India a strong driver to counterbalance the influence of Pakistan over them. He opines that Taliban was interested in developing its relationship with India since its first takeover of Afghanistan, and both the two were maneuvering on it though covertly and was not coming to the surface due to the Taliban’s dependence on Pakistan. He further adds that “The relationship between Pakistan and Taliban is more of a coercive one than a consensual one. So there is a lot of space for India to operate as well.” What is more, Ashley Tellis while opining on Taliban’s present foreign policy says that “The Taliban have recognized that they cannot go back to the old model of simply exporting jihad if they want their regime in Kabul to be successful. The face of moderation is the only thing that will get them what they want-at least for now.”[29] |
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Conclusion |
Presently, Afghanistan is again held in a chaotic situation.[30] The U.S. has finally withdrawn its troops from the country by ending its combat missions[31]which has provided a space to the Taliban for the seizure of capital city of Afghanistan, the Kabul, after their earlier takeover of other provinces.[32] The ANDSF is not in a full capacity to counter the Taliban militia; as a result Taliban is going to have a more military advantage in Afghanistan over them. [33]The security transition in the country has send the alarming signals to neighboring countries about spillover effects of the security implications that are going to emanate from it including India.[34]India since times immemorial has shared cultural bonds with the Afghanistan and has rigorously engaged itself there with a more robust strategy through the soft power initiatives after 9/11. The country stands desirous to carve out a stable, prosperous and peaceful Afghanistan which is quite reflective from its foreign policy agenda. However, India has to fully balance the challenges that it is facing more particularly the Taliban resurgence in order to remain engaged with that country so as to pursue its strategic goals.[35] India can come out of its ‘Wait and Watch’ policy for ongoing security situation in the Afghanistan[36] and can play a more robust leadership role for democratization process of that country[37] which is gradually decreasing by opening the convincing channels with Taliban however based on certain preconditions.[38] Along with it, India can make possible a regional solution to the Afghan conundrum by bringing the countries on a single platform with which it shares common interests with regard to the Afghanistan.[39] |
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39. Kamal Davar, “Afghanistan’s problems require a collective regional solution; India must play a leading role,” South Asia Monitor, last updated January 3, 2022. https://www.southasiamonitor.org/spotlight/afghanistans-problems-require-collective-regional-solution-india-must-play-leading-role. |