|
|||||||
Impact of Covid-19 on
the Indian Economy |
|||||||
Paper Id :
18167 Submission Date :
2023-10-14 Acceptance Date :
2023-10-22 Publication Date :
2023-10-25
This is an open-access research paper/article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. DOI:10.5281/zenodo.10209621 For verification of this paper, please visit on
http://www.socialresearchfoundation.com/remarking.php#8
|
|||||||
| |||||||
Abstract |
The
current epidemic situation has a profoundly negative impact on Indian business.
Locally, the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak could result in a stifling of
domestic interest. Due to job mishaps or wage reductions, this will result in
the breakdown of purchasing power, and the hindering influence of granted
request will have a longer-lasting impact on colorful areas, especially where
request is voluntary in nature. During 2019–20, India's real GDP was more than
six times overextended. India's development is expected to range between 5.3
and 5.7 between the years 2020 and 21. The COVID-19, or Covid, epidemic has shown
numerous flaws in the global framework. Due to our increased interaction with
the board, this illness is malignant.
the choice to confine us all to our residences. Corona epidemic has
seriously disrupted Indian frugal living. The present Covid outbreak could
result in a four percent long-term negative impact on the real Indian GDP. It
is estimated that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate will be 1.9
percent from 2020 to 21 .This will be the least after India recorded
development rate at 1.1 percent in 1991-92.The COVID 19 has upset significant
areas, it's unmistakably obvious that different areas the travel industry and
avionics, telecom, auto area, transportation are most affected areas that are
confronting negative repercussion of the current fiasco . Given the current
situation, the livelihood of the sloggers is in grave danger with all the
retail establishments closing their doors. The governments of numerous
countries have granted support to the companies so they can give workers'
compensation. The current study attempts to analyze the impact of COVID 19 in
various areas while taking into account material that is supplemental in
nature. Various appropriate factual accoutrements and methods are employed for
discussion and conclusion. |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Keywords | Covid-19, Economic impacts, Benefits, Demand and Supply. | ||||||
Introduction | The
COVID-19 flare-up has significantly impacted countries, especially because to
cross-country lockdowns that have halted social and economic activity. All
available resources have been directed toward addressing the necessity of the
uneducated in a world that had before been perpetually humming with exercises.
The virus has a multi-sectoral impact because the financial strain on nations
has subsided. What's astonishing and significant is a warning that the World
Health Organization (WHO) issued in 2019 regarding the inability of the
international community to combat a global epidemic. The impact of such an
epidemic was estimated at 2.1% to 4.8% of global GDP in a 2019 joint report
from the WHO and the World Bank. It looks like their expectations came true. as
we see the world getting overwhelmed by
this exigency . Another report by the
International Labor Organization, titled "COVID-19 and the Creation of
Work Impact and Strategy Responses," claims that the necessity has
recently changed into a financial and work demand shock, impacting both
gracefully (the creation of products and bets) and interest-wise (operation and
enterprise). The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) chief said, It was the
most obviously horrible financial fate since the Great Depression, and the
world is brazenened with extraordinary vulnerability about its scope and
duration. The IMF evaluated the external
support requirements for growing industries and raising livestock in trillions
of bones. India is also suffering from the disease, and according to news
articles published in the Economic Times on March 23, 2020, business judges
estimate that the COVID-19 shutdown will cost US$ 120 billion, or 4% of GDP.
(The Economist, 2020) The COVID-19 pandemic informed the public and the
authorities in the fields of charity, travel and tourism, health care, retail,
banks, hotels, real estate, education, IT, entertainment, and other industries.
The financial squeeze has started and will intensify quickly. While social
segregation and lockdown lead to productivity problems from one perspective,
they also cause a rapid decline in guest demand for goods and services, which
encourages a breakdown in business activity. Nevertheless, the primary
effective tools available to stop the spread of COVID-19 are lockdown and
social segregation. Governments learn by doing, as it was the case when the
financial difficulties of closing the frugalness persisted despite the
achievement of control fashion in the Bhilwara district of Rajasthan, India.
Similar to how decreasing the caseload bend is an introduction to global
thrifty living, unless it comes with a cost. |
||||||
Objective of study | 1. To Research the
Economic Impact of COVID-19 on India. 2. To Research the Economic Advantages of COVID-19 for India. |
||||||
Review of Literature | Dr. Sunita L. Thakkar
(2022):
concluded in her paper IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON INDIAN ECONOMY, The situation of
Covid-19 pandemic has badly affected on the various sectors of Indian economy.
The core three sectors of the economy i.e. agriculture and allied sectors,
industry and service sectors have been impacted at a great level. The growth
rate of each and every sector and overall the economy fell down. According to UN
report, the Indian economy will be impacted by $ 348 million. The figure may be
more than the given as per the situation. A large number of people lost their
jobs and became migrants. Hence, the rate of unemployment of the economy
increased drastically. The government of India and the RBI are trying their
level best to maintain the health of people and the economy. So various
packages have been declared to push the economy. S. Mahendra Dev and
Rajeswari Sengupta (2020): concluded in their paper Covid-19: Impact on the Indian
Economy that The eventual damage to the economy is likely to be significantly
worse than the current estimates. On the demand side, the government needs to
balance the income support required with the need to ensure the fiscal
situation does not spin out of control. The balance struck so far seems to be a
reasonable one but the government needs to find a greater scope for supporting
the incomes of the poor. Involvement of the state and local governments may
also be crucial in the effective implementation of further fiscal
initiatives. The Hindu (2020): Indian Growth rate
for financial year 2020-2021 was expected very low by various credit rating
agencies and the world bank. The expected growth rate was even lower than the
economic reforms. Sengupta (2020): stated that impact of
Covid-19 pandemic was clearly appeared on the GDP, which was noted the lowest,
the rate of unemployment was increased and private sector remained stagnant
that lead cut off purchasing power of the consumer. ILO
(2020): Covid-19 pandemic has been declared as the global disease. The
pandemic has created the worst impact on economy of the country. The rate of
employment was dropped badly. In the core sectors of an economy, economic
activities become very slow or stagnant. |
||||||
Main Text |
Impacts of Covid- 19
on Indian Economy scraping the cash The
whole way across the nation, over 45 of the families have revealed crude pay drops in discrepancy with a time ago's figures. The
employed bones aren't fat either, as there have been
colorful reports of compensation cuts the whole way across different associations in India. During the lockdown, the nation's frugality
was needed to lose an anticipated USD 4.5 billion each and
every day it stayed shut. Out of the
USD2.8 trillion husbandry being run in
the country, under 25 of the whole frame was scarcely practical and enrolling such a development in the business
sectors. Gracefully chains are under
trouble because of the lockdown, because of the
underpinning absence of
limpidness among fundamentals and
gratuitous particulars. Casual
area and daily pay envelope sloggers continue to be the most gambling group of
people in the frugal society. The entire length of India is being traversed by
drivers who had invested money in flimsy pabulum prior to the unexpected
situations being brazenly exposed. Most
important associations around the nation have temporarily paused or completely
dropped their conditioning during this time. As a result of the epidemic,
emerging and new enterprises have experienced a sharp decline in sales. On March 23, 2020, Indian stock exchanges
reported the most incredibly terrible mishaps seen by many organizations
throughout the country as a whole. Localized Financial
Problems India
reported a whopping 258,090 positive cases as of June 8 on John Hopkins
University's dashboard, ranking eighth on the list of countries with the worst
circumstances. At that time, there had been 7,263 recorded expirations. India's
GDP is expected to decrease in its current financial period, which would be
worse than its slowest increase in 11 times during the previous quarter,
according to the nation's most recent fiscal projections. According
to a report released by the Universities of Pennsylvania and Chicago, as well
as the Center for Monitoring the India Economy, Mumbai, an approximate 84
percent Indian families have refused pay reductions since the lockdown
began. They had also argued that the
outbreak had a significant and widespread detrimental impact on family unit
income since 33, all else being equal, would not be able to get by once every
seven days without additional assistance. Sectorial Impact Eateries Services The
National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI), which represents 500,000 or
more eateries across the country, has urged its members to discontinue eating
at restaurants starting on Wednesday and continuing through March 31, 2020.
This will have an impact on how many people feel about eating at cafés, bars,
and coffee shops. Additionally, meal delivery platforms like Swingy and Zomato
that don't employ anyone else have also experienced a hotshot. During the pandemic, requests on Swingy and
Zomato have decreased by 60. Agriculture and Food The
food and horticulture area contributes the most noteworthy in GDP for example
16.5% and 43% to the business area. The significant part of the food handling
area manages dairy (29%), consumable oil (32%), and grains (10%). India
likewise stands number one in dairy and flavors items at a worldwide situation
(send out). The gracefully of the
Food and Agriculture According
to the Ministry of Agriculture, the item will be discussed in the upcoming
seasons due to poor planting of the upcoming sporadic crops, which will affect
mandi conditioning. The organizations
that administer Agro-synthetic make calculations based on demand for finished
goods and import of raw materials. The brick and mortar major retail chains are
still operating in general despite the lack of workers, despite the fact that
the federal and state governments permit the unfettered development of agricultural
products. According
to the Ministry of Agriculture, the topic will be discussed in the upcoming
growing seasons as a result of the upcoming infrequent crops' low planting
rates, which will affect mandi conditioning.
Agrosynthetic management companies factor in the demand for finished
goods and the import of raw materials. The brick and mortar major retail chains
are still operating in the food retail sector with the federal and state
governments allowing unfettered growth of agricultural products, but staff
shortages are posing a challenge. MSME: This
region makes up between 30 and 35 percent of the GDP, demonstrating a split
between large (99), small (0.52), and medium (0.01) undertakings. If we look at
the sectorial distribution of MSMEs, it reveals 49 from rural areas and 51 from
semi-urban and urban areas. The
states with the most registered MSMEs are Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar,
Tamil Nadu, and Madhya Pradesh. According to an AIMO research, roughly
one-fourth of the more than 75 million people in these states are in danger of
failing. goes approximately once a month, and if the lockdown actually widens,
the situation will get worse, affecting 114 million people's jobs and the GDP.
The MSMEs captivated with the administrative area are still working despite a
steep decline in business for buyer products, articles of clothing, and
partnerships; nevertheless, this is likely to change due to declining liquidity
constraints and buying limits. Widgets,
pharmaceuticals, paperback durables, and other industries that rely on imports,
for example, are resisting a ruin, which is bringing great satisfaction
throughout the value chain. The RBI protested a three-month limit on credit
remittances and a decrease in the repo rate, noting that a smaller percentage
of MSMEs depend on council support in advance. Online
Business/Internet Business area: With
a share of the overall assiduity of USD 950 billion, the online business today
assumes a prominent role in the frugality. It makes 10 to the Indian GDP and
achieved amazing results in the work sector in FY19, namely 8. Family and individual consideration
information (50), medical care information (31) and the food and beverage area
(19) are its key components. Due
to the risk of Corona contamination, the social was removed during the fog due
of the guests' propensity to stock up on initial goods like rice, flour, and
lentils. This increased the deals made by FMCG associations, which had
previously seen their sales decline due to a volatile exchange. The online
business sector experienced a surge in growth as a result of strain on the
gracefully chain vehicles and requests from associations for buyers to consider
more modern rotation channels that focus on direct to consumer routes. The
managing and anticipating of interest will play a crucial role in the consumer
connection area in this destabilizing environment. ordering the goods in small
quantities, such as trivial and abecedarian products Specifics in the request
showed colorful reactions. Advantages of Covid:
19 Corona
contamination has a wide range of benefits. The negative effects of the
lockdown were largely discussed in the points above, but if we would not
celebrate the advancement of motorized invested innovative growth, we would
miss out on a significant event good. With the impending lockdown, a smaller
portion of the population transferred their job online, and MNCs are now
employing their work from home option to continue working nonstop. They had to hit the quick forward catch while these patterns were still in the child way at that moment. The developed world has become so driven that even small retail spaces like brick and mortar establishments are using PayTM and other motorized channels. The classroom is currently entirely dependent on motorized stages, with seminaries and sodalities allowing students to take their regular classes from the comfort of their homes using various online stages. They're integrating new software with their educational plans, such as sophisticated grounds where students may access their academy library, charge inaugurations, online assessments, and so on. Examples include Google Study Halls, Drones, and other examples. The necessity of investing in innovations like pall information and digital protection, tone-management capabilities, and e-administration has been highlighted by the current situation. |
||||||
Methodology | The technique
is crucial for building the analysis work because both qualitative and
quantitative methods were included in the investigation. Secondary data are
necessary for this text. Secondary data was gathered from written sources on
the issue, including a variety of publications, articles, reports, books,
journals, and literatures. Sharp-eyed individuals with the intention of
acquiring the most up-to-date knowledge on the subject. |
||||||
Conclusion |
Currently,
it seems necessary for there to be a global recession. In any case, how severe and how lengthy the
decline will be depends on the success of steps taken to stop COVID-19 from
spreading, the effects of government initiatives to ease SMEs' cash problems, and
the assistance provided to struggling families.
It also depends on how businesses react and prepare for the start of
their financial operations. It depends on how long the present lockdowns will
persist, which is also crucial. The
nation is confronting an additional customary testing time in this money
related year. India needs to earnestly figure out how to pad the interest side
stuns actuated by expected lockdowns and other progressing control measure. The
world's thriving frugalness has been twisted in arbitrary and dubious ways by
the twisting and necessary COVID-19 epidemic. However, it essentially showed
that the present slump doesn't seem to be similar to historical downturns that
startled the country's fiscal situation. The necessity to prepare for a future
that is provident, primarily more conducive to living and working, is without a
doubt of utmost importance as nations, societies, businesses, and chains
continue to comprehend the scope of the epidemic. The
twisting and essential COVID-19 outbreak has altered the world's burgeoning
frugalness in arbitrary and dubious ways. But it essentially showed that the
current decline does not seem to be the same as previous downturns that had
shaken the country's fiscal situation. It is without a doubt of utmost
importance to prepare for a future that is provident, primarily one that is
more conducive to living and working, even as the nations, summaries,
businesses, and chains continue to comprehend the depth of the disease. While
the administration should provide policy and changes frequently enough to
ensure economy, the business community, regular social structures, and networks
play a crucial role in maintaining peace. In order to survive until we can
eradicate the sickness, social segregation, avoiding or canceling
get-togethers, and the use of curtains and sanitizers should be the norm. At
this point, thriftiness is likened to human behavior in society, therefore
government is not the only entity responsible for reviving budgetary
discipline. However,
every situation creates a fresh opportunity to reconsider the strategies used
to improve an individual, a network, and society. The COVID-19 pandemic has a
justifiable demand for the Indian thrift to accept realistic, constructive
models that rely on assurance, all-encompassing systems, and are
climate-friendly. |
||||||
References | 1.Barclays.(2020).
How will India lockdown play out for economy & markets: 4 scenarios. EconomicTimes.
2.Bloom,
E., Wit, V. d., Jose, M. J.S. (2005). Potential economic impact of an Avian Flu
Pandemic on Asia. Asian Development Bank. 3.Economic
Survey (2020 ). Key indicators. Government of India. 4.Godman
Sachs (2020). Goldman Sachs estimates India’s GDP growth rate at 1.6%, predicts
RBI will reduce interest rates by another 50 basis points. 5.International
Labour Organisation (2020). COVID-19 and the world of work, impact and policy
responses. ILO. 6.Jagan
Mohan, M.(2020). Travel and tourism industry in India, statistics and facts. 7.Dev
S. M. & Sengupta R. (April, 2020). Covid-19: Impact on the Indian Economy,
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, WP-2020-013. 8.
Economic Survey 2020-21 (Vol. 2) (January, 2021), Government of India, Ministry
of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs, Economic Division. 9.FICCI
(March 20, 2020). Impact of Covid-19 on Indian Economy. 10.Garg,
K. et al. (2021). The Impact of Covid-19 Epidemic on Indian Economy Unleashed
by Machine Learning, IOP Conf. Ser.: Mater. Sci. Eng. 1022 012085. 11.Sonkhaskar,
J. D. (2020). Impact of Covid-19 on Indian Economy, International Journal of
Advanced Science and Technology, Vol. 29, No. 12s, ISSN – 2005-4238, pp. 432-439.
12.Paruchuru,
M. et al. (2020). Economic Impact of Covid-19 on Indian Economy – Government
Measures to Contain the Pandemic, Journal of Critical Reviews, Vol. 7, Issue
19, ISSN – 2394-5125. 13.KPMG.(2020).
Corona virus: India’s GDP growth may fall below 3% if lockdown extends, says
KPMG report. 14.https://economictimes.indiatimes.com 16.https://www.statista.com |