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This study examines the significance of the geostrategic location of Pakistan and the resultant implications for regional geo-politics and impact on neighbouring nations by analysing the key unique features of Pakistan’s location, the impact of location on its national strategy, the key infrastructure projects that have impact on Pakistan and the neighbouring regions as well as the regional and extra regional forces in play in order to arrive at implications going forward for the stability of Pakistan and the impact on Indian security.

The objectives of this study are:

1. To examine the impact of Pakistan’s location on its strategy and on regional geopolitics
2. To examine the impact of both the regional dynamics and extra regional powers on the stability and security of Pakistan in the near future
3. To study the impact of Pakistan’s de-stabilisation on Indian security and the way forward to deal with the ever-evolving situation

As per the Merriam-Webster dictionary, the term geo-strategy is a branch of geopolitics dealing with strategy. It also describes it as the combination of geopolitical and strategic factors characterizing a particular geographic region. Pakistan is located in a region with advantageous economic, political and strategic significance. It has been the hub of super power activities for the past forty years. “While history has been unkind to Pakistan, its geography has been its greatest benefit.”[1], is an apt description of the geostrategic overview of Pakistan, as stated by Stephen Philip Cohen in his book, The Idea of Pakistan. He described the country as being resource-rich in the north-west and people rich in the northeast.

The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is a country in South Asia with a population of 241.49 Million as of 2023. The population consists of various ethnic groups -  Punjabi 44.7%, Pashtun (Pathan) 15.4%, Sindhi 14.1%, Saraiki 8.4%, Muhajirs 7.6%, Balochi 3.6% and others 6.3%.[2] The country shares its eastern border called the ‘Radcliffe Line’ with India. It shares a Sino-Pak Border with China in the north and in the west, it shares borders with Afghanistan (‘Durand Line’) and Iran (‘Gold Smith Line’). To its south lies the Arabian Sea.

Figure 1.1 Pakistan and its Neighbours

The study is based on secondary data and is composed of analysis from various documents and data available in the public domain, reports published by Government of Pakistan and various international agencies, as well as academic publications and reports of research institutes.

Pakistan can be considered as a gateway to Central Asia and a suitable route of access into land-locked Afghanistan, thus making it a key player in regional geopolitics and the ‘Global War on Terrorism’. Other than this, the various borders of Pakistan each have their own significance – the Northern border with China is involved in CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), the Western border with Afghanistan is looking at TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India) Gas Pipeline, the South Western border with the oil and gas rich Iran is involved in the plans for Pak-Iran Gas Pipeline and the border with India of course involves great national, international and political interest. The new port of Gwadar also has great strategic importance due to its proximity to the Gulf States.

And thus, as the gateway to Central Asia, Pakistan’s north-western border can be used as an access to Central Asian Republics that are rich in natural resources. The border with China allows for inflow of Chinese products to the market and supports China-Pakistan trade. Pakistan is around the centre of the Islamic block of influence that ranges from Morocco in the west to Indonesia in the east and is the only recognized nuclear power in the Islamic world hence lending further weight to its geostrategic importance.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a transformative undertaking for Pakistan in terms of economy and infrastructure as well as a key pillar in Chinese trade and security strategy. It is a massive Chinese infrastructure network project, spanning over 3000 km, currently being undertaken in Pakistan. It is an extensive sea-and-land-based corridor that acts as a safeguard against events like wars and conflicts that could affect trade and interests interlinked with Chinese energy and resources by avoiding the existing route from the Straits of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia and thus securing as well as reducing costs for the transport of China’s energy imports from the Middle East. Developing a deep-water port at Gwadar in the Arabian Sea and a well-built road and rail line from this port to Xinjiang Province in western China would lead to a significant boost in the trade between Europe and China.[3] Pakistan hopes this project helps to overcome an electricity shortfall, leads to greater infrastructural development and helps in modernizing its transportation networks. Along with shifting it from an agriculture based economic structure to industry based.

Thus, Pakistani officials envision great contributions from this project towards employment generation as well as economic growth. They estimate that by 2030 CPEC would contribute more than 2.3 million jobs to the market, and increase the country’s yearly economic growth by 2% to 2.5%. By 2022, it was already estimated to have enhanced Pakistan's exports and development capacity as well as provide 1/4th of the total electricity.

This project would also lead to economic development of the Xinjiang region which could encourage a reduction in the militant activities and influence of Muslim separatists on the native Uyghurs, thus mitigating a national security issue for China.[4][5]  Once this corridor is functional, the existing 12,000 km journey of oil transportation to China will be reduced to just 2,395 km which is estimated to save China $2 billion per year. The estimated value of the CPEC projects as of 2020 is approximated at $62 billion, an increase from the original valuation of $46 billion.[6] CPEC aims to swiftly upgrade Pakistan's required infrastructure and hence strengthen its economy by constructing modern transportation networks, setting up multiple energy projects, and establishing special economic zones.[7] This may include industries such as food processing, cooking oil, ceramics, gems and jewellery, marble, minerals, agriculture machinery, iron and steel, motorbike assembling, electrical appliances and automobile.[8] CPEC projects will provide China with an alternate route for energy supplies, as well as a new route by which Western China can conduct trade thus insulating it from any perceived interference by the West, while safeguarding its interests in times of conflict or war. Pakistan stands to gain due to upgrade of infrastructure and introduction of a reliable energy supply. 

Figure 1.2 CPEC Projects

Gwadar was highlighted as an area of interest after the Kargil War when Pakistan felt the need of having a military naval port and the Karachi-Gwadar Road (Coastal Highway) was built for defence purposes. Gwadar can be described as the central lynchpin of the CPEC project, as it envisions a direct link between China's ambitious One Belt, One Road project, and its 21st Century Maritime Silk Road project. The Gwadar port is the nearest warm-water port to energy-rich landlocked Central Asian Countries and thus of great geographical importance. Gwadar Port provides access to the ‘Gulf of Oman’ which extends via ‘Strait of Hormuz’ to form the ‘Persian Gulf’ which is surrounded by energy-resource-rich Iran, UAE, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq. Gwadar Port thus also provides access to the world’s largest natural gas reservoir ‘Pars Gas Field’ shared by Iran and Qatar which is in the Persian Gulf.

The Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline, also known as Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline, is a natural gas pipeline being developed by the Galkynysh – TAPI Pipeline Company Limited with participation of the Asian Development Bank. The pipeline aims to transport natural gas from the Galkynysh Gas Field in Turkmenistan via Afghanistan and then through Pakistan into India.[9] Construction on the project started in Turkmenistan on 13 December 2015, while construction of the Afghanistan-Pakistan section of the pipeline commenced in February 2018. But as of 2024, construction of the pipeline remains stalled and due to its geographic location, Pakistan remains a key player in this pipeline that is of great interest to India’s energy needs. There is also the Iran–Pakistan gas pipeline, also known as the Peace pipeline, or IP Gas, an under-construction 2,775-kilometre (1,724 mi) pipeline to deliver natural gas from Iran to Pakistan. However, this project is substantially delayed. While the Iranian section of the pipeline has been completed, the Pakistani section remains under construction and subject to renewed delays due to concerns about US sanctions that had been raised against Iran earlier. Pakistan hopes to extend the deadline for construction to avoid paying fees for failure to complete the pipeline on time.[10]

Thus, Pakistan’s geographical location is of unique strategic significance to both regional and extra-regional powers and so provides it a unique opportunity to leverage all the regional and international interests that converge within the area to propel itself forward and use the forces in play to its own benefit. Hence it is also imperative to analyse and examine the state, strategy and trajectory of Pakistan and its plans, projects and policies in order to understand the path forward in the subcontinent as well as the power dynamics involved and formulate contingencies for the same.

Pakistan’s stability and trajectory are closely monitored globally due to its potential to impact regional security. It holds a large significance in the domain of regional and global security because of its strategic location at the confluence of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East. Pakistan’s strategic importance is deeply rooted in its geographical location and security dynamics. Despite challenges, Pakistan’s strategic importance continues and so understanding and harnessing this strategic significance is essential to navigate the complexities of Asian and global geopolitics.

So far, due to Pakistan’s geostrategic significance, monetary assistance from the West in the garb of supporting Global War on Terror (GWOT) in Afghanistan, from frontline Islamic state of Saudi Arabia and from China being its proxy against India had kept it going despite its precarious state and multitude of fault lines. However, the dwindling Western aid and support in view of the regime change in Afghanistan and the reluctance of Saudi Arabia in giving aid without reforms pushes Pakistan even more towards the arms of China. China’s expanding role in Pakistan is a significant concern for India.

China’s efforts to isolate India, restrict its rise, and expand Chinese influence in the neighbourhood will continue. The ambitious CPEC project displays China’s goals of expanding its sphere of influence. India needs to move more quickly on the creation of its own key projects, such as the Bangladesh, China, India, and Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM) etc. Increased Sino-Pakistan collusion on a host of issues such as Kashmir, blocking its demand for the designation of certain persons as international terrorists, etc in global forums is a given. With Ladakh as an example, one can envision a possible intensification of the unrelenting Chinese military pressure on Indian borders, encouraged by the shared Sino-Pak interests on strategic and territorial issues. China’s support of Pakistan could increase the threat that Pakistan poses to India as well as lead to the possibility of a “two-front war” situation in times of escalating conflict. A deepening of the U.S.-India partnership is possible due to the common threat of China.

Another source of concern is the Gwadar Port, which can be considered a part of China’s “string of pearls” investments in port infrastructure that could be used for dual civilian and military purposes. It’s a matter of concern for both the Indian and U.S. navy that Gwadar and the Chinese naval installation in Djibouti extends China’s naval capabilities in the Indian Ocean region and gives China multiple supply locations proximate to the Persian Gulf. The  risk also remains that Chinese backing will embolden Pakistan to challenge India, both through terrorism and further expansion of Pakistan’s conventional and strategic arsenals. Consequently, India has to prepare for its regional security taking into account a more aggressive Chinese presence in Pakistan, especially the growing military presence. The expansion of Gwadar port raises concerns for India’s naval security in the Arabian Sea and its energy and oil imports through the Gulf of Oman. For India, developing the Chabahar port with Iran is thus important as a strategic counterpoint to the same.

From an Indian perspective, it would be preferable to have a stable and progressive Pakistan as a neighbour, independent of too much Chinese influence. Turbulence and instability in Pakistan would be a major destabilizing factor in the subcontinent and India is bound to be affected by the spill-over effects of any such destabilization in its immediate neighbour. India might even get exposed to further large-scale acts of terrorism or communal clashes as well as face the risk of stratagems instigated by China. To ensure its security, India would have no option but to defend itself vigorously in case of such attempts. Thus, India, while working towards creating a stronger communal fibre and safeguarding itself against terrorist attacks, needs to be prepared militarily as well to meet any challenges to its security due to not just Pakistan’s instability and turmoil but also its dynamics with regional powers while leveraging its geostrategic significance.

1. Asian Development Bank, “TAPI Pipeline to Help Address Energy Shortages in Pakistan”, April 2016, Retrieved from https://www.adb.org/news/tapi-pipeline-help-address-energy-shortages-pakistan
2. Central Intelligence Agency. (2023). Pakistan. In The world factbook. Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/pakistan
3. Cohen, Stephen (2004) The Idea of Pakistan, Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 382 pages
4. CPEC Portal, Pakistan-China Institute, December 2022, retrieved from https://cpecinfo.com/cpec-sezs-to-help-in-rapid-industrialization-generate-employment-opportunities-s-m-naveed/
5. Hussain, Tom (19 April 2015). "China's Xi in Pakistan to cement huge infrastructure projects, submarine sales". McClatchy News. Islamabad: mcclatchydc. Retrieved 20 April 2015.
6. Lucy Hornby; Charles Clover (12 October 2015). "China's Great Game: Road to a new empire". Financial Times. Retrieved 3 November 2022.
7. Minxing, H., & Sayed, M. (2022). CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR AND GEOSTRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST. Journal of Pakistan-China Studies (JPCS), 3(1), 37–52. https://doi.org/10.55733/jpcs.v3i1.50
8. “The CPEC challenge and the India-China standoff: An opportunity for war or peace?". The Times of India. 9 August 2020.
9. Tom Phillips (12 May 2017). "World's biggest building project aims to make China great again". The Guardian. Tashkurgan. Retrieved 3 November 2022.
10. Wikipedia contributors. (2024, April 20). Iran–Pakistan gas pipeline. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 07:07, August 5, 2023, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_gas_pipeline&oldid=1219839576

[1] Cohen, Stephen (2004) The Idea of Pakistan, Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 382 pages
[2] Central Intelligence Agency. (2023). Pakistan. In The world factbook. Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/pakistan
[3] Minxing, H., & Sayed, M. (2022). CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR AND GEOSTRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST. Journal of Pakistan-China Studies (JPCS), 3(1), 37–52. https://doi.org/10.55733/jpcs.v3i1.50
[4] Lucy Hornby; Charles Clover (12 October 2015). "China's Great Game: Road to a new empire". Financial Times. Retrieved 3 November 2022.
[5] Tom Phillips (12 May 2017). "World's biggest building project aims to make China great again". The Guardian. Tashkurgan. Retrieved 3 November 2022.
[6] "The CPEC challenge and the India-China standoff: An opportunity for war or peace?". The Times of India. 9 August 2020.
[7] Hussain, Tom (19 April 2015). "China's Xi in Pakistan to cement huge infrastructure projects, submarine sales". McClatchy News. Islamabad: mcclatchydc. Retrieved 20 April 2015.
[8] CPEC Portal, Pakistan-China Institute, December 2022, retrieved from https://cpecinfo.com/cpec-sezs-to-help-in-rapid-industrialization-generate-employment-opportunities-s-m-naveed/
[9] Asian Development Bank, “TAPI Pipeline to Help Address Energy Shortages in Pakistan”, April 2016, Retrieved from https://www.adb.org/news/tapi-pipeline-help-address-energy-shortages-pakistan
[10]Wikipedia contributors. (2024, April 20). Iran–Pakistan gas pipeline. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 07:07, August 5, 2023, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_gas_pipeline&oldid=1219839576